A Study On The Impact Of Digital Inclusive Finance On Rural Household Debt Behavior And Its Risks

Dual economic structure is an important national condition in our country.For a long time,the gap between urban and rural areas has been an insurmountable gap.Compared with urban families,rural families are more prone to excessive financial debt accumulation and high debt leverage ratio.With the rapid development of big data,cloud computing and other information technologies,digital technology and inclusive finance continue to deepen the integration,digital inclusive finance has a profound impact on rural household debt decision-making,so research on the impact of digital inclusive finance on rural household debt behavior and risks is helpful to help rural households optimize their financial decision-making and avoid financial distress.In this context,based on the theories of financial exclusion and financial development,this paper uses the data of China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)in 2015,2017 and 2019,combined with the Digital Financial Inclusion Index of Peking University,constructs Probit model and two-way fixed effect model to study the impact of digital financial inclusion on rural household debt behavior and its risk.Secondly,from the three dimensions of digital financial inclusion,this paper studies the difference of its impact on rural household debt behavior and risk,and explores the heterogeneity of the above relationships from the regional dimensions of east,middle and west,and the dimensions of high,middle and low income levels.On this basis,Heckman two-stage model and instrumental variable method are used to reduce the possible endogenous bias.Specifically,this study aims to explore the theoretical mechanism of digital inclusive finance affecting rural household debt,the heterogeneous impact of digital inclusive finance on rural household debt behaviors,the effect of digital inclusive finance on alleviating rural household debt risks,and the heterogeneous impact of digital inclusive finance on rural household debt behaviors and risks in different regions and income groups.To examine the possible role channels of digital financial inclusion in affecting rural household debt risk,and put forward policy suggestions to alleviate rural household debt risk.The results show that:(1)the total index of digital inclusive finance will increase the debt choice and debt scale of rural households;Compared with consumption debt,the total index of digital inclusive finance has a more significant impact on production and operational debt,and the total index of digital inclusive finance has an "inverted U-shaped" trend on rural household debt risk.(2)In different dimensions of digital inclusive finance,coverage breadth and depth of use will significantly increase the debt choice and debt scale of rural households,and coverage breadth and depth of use will have an"inverted U-shaped" trend on rural household debt risk.The degree of digitization will increase the debt choice and debt size of rural households,but only increase the debt risk of rural households when the development level of digital financial inclusion is low.(3)In the secondary indicators of the depth of use,the payment,insurance,investment and credit indexes all increase the debt choice and debt scale of rural households;In the debt structure,the payment index has more significant influence on the consumption debt,while the insurance,investment and credit index have more significant influence on the production and operating debt.In the debt risk,only the payment index has an "inverted U-shaped"trend to the rural household debt risk,and the insurance,investment and credit index can only alleviate the rural household debt risk.(4)The total index of digital inclusive finance has a greater impact on the debt choice and scale of rural households in central and western regions,and has a more significant easing effect on the debt risk of rural households in western regions;Digital financial inclusion has a greater impact on the choice and scale of debt in the high-income group,while the debt risk alleviation in the low-income group is more significant.(5)Digital inclusive finance alleviates rural household debt risks through rural household disposable income channels,in which disposable income plays a part of the intermediary role.In order to help rural residents prevent and resolve household debt risks,this paper puts forward the following suggestions:First,the government should pay close attention to the problem of rural household debt risks and vigorously promote the development of rural digital inclusive finance;Second,formulate differentiated credit policies to guide digital inclusive finance to play a greater role in the central and western regions;Third,strengthen the depth of use of digital inclusive finance and improve the revenue-increasing role of digital inclusive finance.