| The National People’s Congress and the Chinese Political Consultative Conference in May 2020 proposed to "gradually form a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles promoting each other".It is necessary to accelerate the construction of domestic demand system.As an important means for household to smooth consumption,household debt plays an important role in promoting the development of internal circulation.Researches show that moderate debt helps to alleviate the constraint of household liquidity,increase the utility of household intertemporal consumption,promote the accumulation of household wealth and further improve household welfare.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to discuss household debt in China under the background of new development pattern.However,excessive debt may increase the burden and risk of households.In recent years,the debt scale of China’s household sector has expanded rapidly.At the end of 2020,Chinese household debt as a share of GDP has exceeded the G20 and emerging markets averages,but remained below the UK,US,Japan and advanced economies average.Although the overall risk of household debt in China is relatively controllable,the problem of rapid growth also needs to be vigilant.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to analyze the changes of household debt scale as well as the causes of promoting the growth of household debt.The new development pattern also put forward new requirements for China’s financial allocation of credit resources.At the household level,it is necessary to focus on promoting household consumption and production and operations,while preventing debt expansion and achieving a long-term balance between consumption,growth and risk prevention.The growth of household sector debt has always mainly driven by housing debt,which reflects certain structural problems.Therefore,it is necessary to discuss the structure of household debt.In addition,as an important part of household funding sources,informal credit played an important role in farmers’ agricultural production and operation,household entrepreneurship and poverty reduction.However,according to the China Household Finance Survey data,households’ informal credit holding has decreased significantly,and the structure of household debt channels changed a lot.Therefore,it is also necessary to analyze the changes and causes of household debt channels,especially for private lending.Meanwhile,with the rapid development of China’s economy and the growing prosperity of financial market in recent years,traditional financial system represented by the banking industry has developed rapidly.At the same time,emerging financial models also shows a trend of accelerated development.Based on digital technologies,digital finance has developed rapidly in our country.Traditional financial institutions,represented by the banking industry,are important financing channels for households.The development of digital finance also broadened household financing channels and lowered the threshold for financial participation.Therefore,the development of traditional and emerging financial markets may effectively reduce information asymmetry and transaction costs,improve household access for financial services,and thereby affecting household debt.The development of financing market also affects the supply of private lending,thus affecting households’ access to private lending,and further affecting the household debt channel structure.Existing studies on household debt mostly based on macro data or micro crosssectional data,which few based on multiple-period of micro-survey data to elaborate the changes of household debt in various aspects.And the discussions on household debt mostly focus on a single subject,which is relatively scattered,and lack of systematic discussion on integrating all aspects of household debt into a unified analysis framework.Besides,researches on the influencing factors of household debt mainly carried out at the micro level.And the macro perspective mainly focus on housing price changes,while less concerning about financial market development especially for financial innovation.Therefore,based on multi-period household micro data from China Household Finance Survey,this paper takes Chinese household debt as the research topic,comprehensively analyse the detailed changes of household debt level,structure and group heterogeneity in recent years,and further explores the causes from the perspective of development of banking,digital financial market and financing market.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows.Chapter three elaborates the changes of household debt in China.First,using macro data,this paper expounds the current situation and changing trend of the debt level and structure of Chinese household sector.Second,using the multiple-period micro household survey data,this paper analyzes the changes and group heterogeneity of Chinese household debt in recent years,including household credit demand,debt holding,debt scale,debt burden,credit access,debt channels,debt structure.Results show that household debt scale and burden show an upward trend.The holding,acquisition,scale,proportion of households’ formal credit shows an upward trend on the whole,while the holding,acquisition,scale,proportion of informal credit shows a downward trend.Household consumption debt increased obviously,while the proportion of business debt in total debt decreased.Chapter four explores the impact of banking development on household debt.Using the data of China Household Finance Survey in 2015,2017 and 2019,this part empirically examines the specific impact of banking development on household debt.First,we use the fixed effect model to analyze the influence of banking development on household debt level.Results show that the development of banking industry significantly increased the scale of household debt and household debt burden,and there is nearly no significant difference of the impact among households with different characteristics.Second,Probit model and Tobit model are used to analyze the impact of banking development on household debt channels.Our study shows that the development of banking industry increases the proportion of household debt in formal credit channel by improving the availability of formal credit.Meanwhile,the availability and proportion of informal loans reduced with the development of banking industry.Then,Tobit model is used to analyze the impact of banking development on household debt structure.We find that the banking development significantly reduces the ratio of household business debt.Chapter five investigates the impact of digital finance development on household debt.Based on the data of China Household Finance Survey in 2015,2017 and 2019,using fixed effect model,Probit model and Tobit model,this part explores the reasons for the changes in household debt from the perspective of the development of digital financial market.Results show that the development of digital finance significantly increases the scale of household debt and the debt burden,and the effect is mainly reflected in households with higher assets,higher income,stable jobs and newly purchased houses.Next,we find that the development of digital finance increases the proportion of household debt in formal credit channels and online lending channels,and reduces the proportion of household informal debt.Then,our study show that the development of digital finance significantly increases the availability of formal credit and reduces the availability of informal credit.We also find that the development of digital finance significantly reduces the proportion of household business debt,and increases the proportion of household consumption debt.In addition,the mechanism analysis shows that the development of digital finance mainly affects the household debt through the innovation of financial mode and easing the information asymmetry of the credit market.Besides,this chapter further discusses the effect of digital finance development on promoting the growth of household consumption level and the upgrading of consumption structure.Chapter six examines the influence of development of financing market on household private lending.Specifically,this part analyzes the impact of financing market development on household private debt availability based on the data of China Household Finance Survey in 2015,2017 and 2019.Results show that the development of financing market has significantly reduced households’ participation,availability and the proportion of private debt.Heterogeneity analysis show that the negative impact of financing market development on household private debt mainly exist in households with higher assets,higher income,higher wealth,higher education and in urban areas.The mechanism analysis show that the development of financing market promotes the purchase of financial products,reduces the willingness of private lending for households,and thus reduces the availability to household private credit,which changes the structure of household debt channels.The main innovations of this paper are shown as follows.First,taking household debt as the research subject,this paper comprehensively discusses the detailed problems of household debt.Existing researches related on household finance mainly focus on asset allocation,income,consumption,while less concerning about household debt.Under the background of the new development pattern,the discuss on household debt problem shows important practical significance for driving the consumption and promoting economic growth.And the existing researches on household debt behavior mainly focus on a single aspect of household debt,which less considering various aspects of the household debt behavior and household private lending.Therefore,the discussion of various aspects of household debt in this paper effectively reflect the specific situation of Chinese household debt,which is more systematic.Second,combined with the development of traditional and emerging financial markets,this paper shows the causes of household debt level and structure changes from the perspective of financial supply.Domestic existing researches on the influencing factors of household debt mostly based on the microscopic characteristics of households,and the macroscopic perspective also focuses on housing price,which few is carried out from the perspective of financial market development,especially the innovation of financial models.The development of the banking industry and digital finance reflect changes in the supply side of debt,and the development of financing market also affects the supply of household private lending.Therefore,the comprehensive discussion of the factors affecting household debt from the perspective of financial market development are important supplements to the existing literature.Third,using the multi-period micro-survey data,this paper reveals the dynamic changes of household debt in China.Existing studies of household debt in China mostly based on micro cross-sectional data or macro data,which lacks detailed explanations and changes of participation,scale,leverage,channels and structure of household debt and heterogeneity of households with different characteristics from a micro-perspective.Based on the multi-period micro-survey data of the China Household Finance Survey,this paper shows the detailed changes and group heterogeneity of China’s household debt in recent years.In the context of the rapid growth of China’s household sector debt,our study shows important practical significance. |
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