| In 2016,China’s structural contradictions in grain supply and demand were prominent,with domestic and international maize prices continuing to invert and a large number of imports of maize and its substitutes rising,crowding out the domestic market and highlighting the contradictions between maize supply and demand.Against this backdrop,China cancelled the temporary maize storage system and transformed it into a "market-based purchase+producer subsidy" policy of price separation.The "separation of price and subsidy" policy strips producer subsidies from the maize storage price and returns the maize price formation mechanism to the market,reasserting the decisive role of the market in the allocation of food resources to ensure national food security and market stability.Therefore,this paper focuses on the following questions:(1)How effective has the implementation of the "separation of price and subsidy" policy been and what impact has it had on maize production?(2)Through what channels has the "separation of price and subsidy" policy had an impact on maize production?Based on consideration of the above issues,this paper uses panel data of prefecture-level cities in six major maize producing provinces,namely Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning,Anhui,Shandong and Henan,from 2009-2019 to construct a DID double difference model and a dynamic effects model to explore the impact and dynamic effects of the "separation of price and subsidy" policy on maize production in China,and introduces a mediating effects model to analyse in depth the impact mechanism of the policy on maize production.The following conclusions were obtained:(1)On the whole,the "separation of price and subsidy" policy significantly reduced maize sown area,increased maize yield per unit area and reduced total maize production.(2)From a dynamic point of view,the impact of the policy on maize production was time-sensitive,with the impact diminishing over time.In the early stages of implementation,the impact of the policy on maize production was strongest;over time,the impact of the policy on maize production weakened.(3)In terms of the mechanism of influence,based on farmers’ planting decisions and behaviours,the policy acted through different channels on maize sown area and maize yields,and thus on total maize production.For maize sown area,the policy reduced maize sown area by increasing the proportion of competing crops planted,and at the same time promoted the optimisation of the grain crop planting structure;for maize yield per unit area,the policy promoted it by increasing the level of agricultural mechanisation;for total maize production,the negative effect of the policy on maize sown area was greater than the positive effect on maize yield per unit area,as the "separation of price and subsidy" policy reduced the total maize production by reducing the area sown. |
