Social Stability Risk Coupling Of Old City Reconstruction Project Based On N-K Model

With the rapid advancement of urbanization construction in China,social conflict events frequently occur in old city renovation projects,and the risk factors are complex and interactive.In order to explore the risk source and risk relationship,it is necessary to conduct a coupling study on the social stability risks of the old city reconstruction project,which will help promote the prevention and resolution of social conflicts.This article conducts a social stability risk coupling study on old city renovation projects following the steps of risk analysis,risk factor identification,risk indicator screening,risk indicator system establishment,risk coupling analysis,and risk response.First of all,it outlines the definition,type and existing problems of old city reconstruction,introduces the concept of social stability risk,the scope and process of social stability risk assessment,and briefly expounds the concept and typical representatives of Neo-Marxism urban space theory,which provides a theoretical basis for later research.Then,based on the risk analysis of the Neo-Marxism urban space theory,through interviews and literature analysis,the social stability risk factors in each link of the old city reconstruction project are identified,which are classified into six aspects:policy measures,land and housing expropriation compensation,planning,construction and supporting of resettlement housing,organizational behavior,economic life impact,and social environment.Using the expert consultation method to obtain the importance ranking data of risk factors,and applying the TOPSIS model to calculate the relative similarity of factors in the six major social stability risks of old city renovation projects,the social stability risk evaluation index system of old city renovation projects is obtained.Finally,based on the risk coupling mechanism,the formation law of social stability risk coupling classification for old city renovation projects was clarified.Based on the data of 140 social stability accidents that occurred in old city renovation projects in thirteen cities in Jiangsu Province from 2010 to 2020,the N-K model was applied to obtain the coupled measurement values of social stability risk for old city renovation projects.By analyzing the calculation results of coupling measures,it is concluded that the synergistic risk factors between policy measures and land and housing expropriation compensation are the most critical.The risk factors of land and housing expropriation compensation have a prominent ability to induce risk factor coupling in multi factor coupling,and social environmental factors are more likely to trigger risk events under the same policy measure background.It is also proposed to standardize the policy guidance and administrative role of the government Measures to mitigate risks such as discontinuous distribution of public facilities,community belonging of repair or reconstruction groups,etc.