Research On Price Fluctuation And Forecast Of Cotton Futures In Xinjian

Xinjiang is the largest cotton producing area in China,and Xinjiang cotton occupies an important position in China’s cotton industry.Its price fluctuation not only affects the income of local cotton farmers and the level of economic development,but also has a significant impact on the development of the national cotton industry.Therefore,the study of Xinjiang cotton futures price fluctuation characteristics can not only provide a scientific basis for the development of Xinjiang cotton industry,but also better predict the market trend and price trend,promote the harmony and stability of the cotton market,and promote the healthy development of international trade.This paper is based on the daily yield of Xinjiang cotton futures price in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange.First of all,GARCH model was applied to further study the price volatility characteristics of Xinjiang cotton futures.In order to further study the influence of external factors on price volatility,E-GARCH model was continued to be used.The results show that E-GARCH model is better than GARCH model in capturing price volatility,and it is a better choice to measure the characteristics of market volatility.Secondly,GARCH-VaR and E-GARCH-VaR models are used to measure the risk of Xinjiang cotton futures price.Through comparison,it is found that E-GARCH-VaR model has higher accuracy and is more suitable for risk measurement research.Finally,by comparing the prediction accuracy of GARCH(1,1)model and Garch-BP combined model,it is found that Garch-BP combined model has better prediction results and higher fitting value,which can be used as a more effective model to predict the daily yield of Xinjiang cotton futures price.Based on the above research conclusions,the following countermeasures and suggestions are drawn:(1)Improve the awareness of risk management and strengthen price risk management.Prioritize developing risk management policies and procedures,building a risk management team,and investing in risk management techniques and tools.(2)Establish price early warning system and improve price internal control mechanism.We need to increase input and support,strengthen international cooperation,guide market sentiment,and help enterprises better track and anticipate risks.(3)Improve cotton market system and enrich enterprise risk control means.Improve the internationalization of cotton futures trading in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange,strengthen the opening to the outside world,and increase the participation of international capital.(4)Strengthen foreign cooperation and exchanges,and train price risk management personnel.To establish an international cotton industry cooperation mechanism,jointly study the market demand and development trend,formulate appropriate cooperation strategies and plans,enhance the international competitiveness and influence of the cotton industry,and provide talent support for enterprises to participate in the international cotton market game.(5)Improving industrial standardization construction and increasing investment in industrial scientific research.Increase investment and research efforts,provide financial support specifically for standards,formulate reasonable incentive policies,and make full use of social forces to speed up the formulation and improvement of standards system to adapt to the development of Xinjiang’s agricultural industry.