Analysis On The Fluctuation Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of Ginger In China

China is a big producer,consumer and exporter of ginger.Ginger production,scale and planting area are among the top in the world.In the wave of agricultural supply-side structural reform,ginger and other characteristic vegetables with convenient production and storage,deep processing development potential,industrial chain expansion prospects,etc.China has become the main agricultural products with strong international competitiveness and high export trade capacity,will play a significant role in the development of rural industries to enrich the people,promote farmers to continue to increase income,stable export earning foreign exchange and other aspects.In recent years,"Crazy Ginger prices","Poisonous ginger",and other events frequently occur,indicating that the degree of modernization of Chinese ginger industry is still at a lower level,the scientific and technological support for industrial development is still relatively weak,and the scale,standardization,branding and informatization of production are low.Excessive price fluctuation will not only bring adverse impact on market equilibrium,but also seriously damage the interests of ginger farmers and consumers.Therefore,the analysis of China’s ginger price fluctuation characteristics,and further in-depth analysis of the impact of China’s ginger price fluctuation factors,for the macro-control of domestic and foreign ginger prices,increase farmers’ income,the development of relevant policies and enhance international influence and other aspects are of great significance.Based on a large number of literature and empirical analysis,the paper systematically analyze the production scale,varieties and yield per unit area,production layout and trade scale of Ginger industry in China.According to the monthly wholesale price data of ginger on the website of the Ministry of Commerce,PRC,X-12 seasonal adjustment and HP filter were used to decompose the monthly price series,and the fluctuation rule of ginger price in China was comprehensively analyzed.Finally,ARM A model was constructed to forecast and analyze ginger price in China in the future.Further,from the perspective of ginger industry background,eight main factors affecting the price fluctuation of ginger in China,such as ginger supply and ginger demand are summarized.Factor analysis and principal component regression were used to explore the influence of seven factors on the price fluctuation of ginger.The findings:Ginger price to rise on the whole is in shock,the ginger price fluctuation is influenced by the cost of production and natural disaster is very big,also has very obvious seasonal,different influence factors of fluctuation cycle is different,the imbalance between supply and demand is also the important factors influencing the ginger price fluctuations,different market factors also stimulated the ginger in the different periods of the intensity of a quake as soon as the price fluctuations.In 2010,the price fluctuation of ginger was mainly affected by the rise of production costs and frequent natural disasters.In 2014,the phenomenon of "Crazy Ginger prices" was caused by the imbalance of supply and demand of ginger,inflation and other factors.Direct to the problems of ginger industry in China,the paper proposes to increase the investment in ginger science and technology,improve the construction of ginger information system,strengthen the market supervision of agricultural products,actively guide the development of new business entities,and focus on the intensive processing of ginger products,continue to implement the system of target price insurance,helping China’s ginger industry healthy,scientific and sustainable development.The innovation of this paper lies in the discovery of the law of ginger price fluctuation in China,using the ginger price data from 2004 to 2020 as long as 17 years to conduct a comprehensive and reasonable empirical analysis and conclude the characteristics of price fluctuation.Secondly,the influence factor model is used to analyze the price fluctuation of ginger.The influencing factors of ginger price fluctuation were found by factor analysis method and principal component regression method in typical fluctuation cycle.