| As a new construction mode,prefabricated construction can promote the traditional construction industry to change from a scattered and backward technical production mode to a large-scale industrialized production mode based on modern production technology,which is conducive to the realization of the goal of "two mentions and two reductions",thus increasing productivity,improving the operating environment and reducing the impact of the weakening labor dividend.To promote the construction industry in China to the direction of low consumption and low pollution transformation and upgrading of the necessary road.However,the development of prefabricated construction in China is relatively slow.As the leader of the prefabricated construction industry chain,developers maintain a hesitant and wait-and-see attitude towards the investment of prefabricated construction projects due to the lack of mature practical experience in risk management of prefabricated construction projects.Therefore,from the perspective of the long-term development of developers,this paper deeply analyzes the risk factors faced by the investment of prefabricated buildings,and provides relevant risk management experience for developers to develop prefabricated buildings.Firstly,this paper systematically analyzes the current research status of prefabricated buildings and risk management at home and abroad,and then elaborates on the concepts related to the investment risk of prefabricated buildings,theories related to risk management and cloud model theory;secondly,on the basis of clarifying the principles of risk identification,a preliminary screening of the investment risk of prefabricated buildings is conducted by using literature analysis,followed by key risk factors with the help of principal component analysis The final list of risk influencing factors was established by fitting optimization;finally,the evaluation index system was constructed from five aspects: policy,technology,management,economy and market.Again,by analyzing the applicability of the sequential relationship method and COWA operator in the assignment process,the respective assignment process is introduced,and the game theory idea is introduced into the portfolio assignment process of investment risk indexes,and then the evaluation model of assembly building investment risk of the portfolio assignment cloud model is constructed by combining the cloud model comprehensive evaluation method.Finally,the constructed evaluation index system and evaluation model are applied to the project example,and the investment risk level of an assembly building project in Zhengzhou City is analyzed by combining the comparison of standard cloud and evaluation cloud position and the comparison of similarity size,and the risk level in five dimensions of policy,technology,management,economy and market is comprehensively analyzed to verify the applicability of the evaluation model in the field of investment risk;and then the evaluation model is provided for developers with countermeasures to reduce the investment risk of prefabricated buildings,aiming to encourage and guide developers to increase the development of prefabricated buildings,so as to promote the safe and long-term development of prefabricated buildings in China. |
