| The real estate sector is inextricably linked to economic development and the government has been trying to balance steady economic growth with the steady development of the real estate sector.However,the high returns brought by real estate made the rapid expansion of the housing market.Capital poured into the real estate development industry,and the real estate bubble has gradually accumulated.Investment growth in the real economy is weak,the impetus for innovation is insufficient,and some real enterprises are seriously affected.In view of the problem of high debt and high leverage of real estate enterprises,the "three red lines" policy officially introduced in 2021 has set up new financing rules for real estate enterprises,aiming at controlling the risks in the real estate industry.In the short term,the "three red lines" have played a certain role.From the long-term perspective,the real estate enterprises will recover from the pain by changing the sales mode and business model.The 2025 China Manufacturing plan is to give priority to China’s real economy industry,led by manufacturing.The revitalization and development of the real economy cannot be separated from the financial support of the financial sector.But the role of the financial sector in supporting the development of the real economy is getting weaker and weaker,that is,the financial efficiency is constantly decreasing.Therefore,under the current level of financial development,the impact of real estate investment on real economic growth should be analyzed more comprehensively.This paper empirically studies the impact of real estate investment on real economic growth in China,and investigates whether the level of financial development affects the effect of real estate investment on the real economy,in order to provide a reference for the government’s long-term and orderly regulatory policies.Firstly this paper demonstrates that real estate investment in the real economy from two theoretical and empirical aspects.In the theoretical analysis,the driving effect of real estate investment on the real economy are analyzed by using the wealth effect theory and industrial correlation theory.The extrusion path of real estate on the real economy is explored from the three perspectives of capital,consumption and innovation.Finally,the influence of financial development level on the real estate investment effect is analyzed from the perspectives of credit department,government behavior and real economy department.In the first part of the empirical analysis,the paper established a panel model of the impact of real estate investment on other fixed assets based on the theory of Agosin and Mayer(2000).In order to analyze the real estate investment and social fixed capital investment in different provinces,cities and autonomous regions under different financial development levels,the writor selected the panel data of 31 provinces,cities and autonomous regions from 2006 to 2020.The empirical results show that,in general,real estate investment has a certain crowding-out effect on other fixed capital investment.The regression results after grouping according to the financial development level show that the crowding out effect is weak in financially developed areas and strong in financially less developed areas.In order to explore the impact of financial development on the growth effect of real estate investment on the real economy,this paper constructs an endogenous growth model including investment structure and financial development.It finds out that at the national level,the higher financial development level the weaker driving effect of real estate investment on the real economy.Further analysis shows that in the underdeveloped area,the financial improvement can weaken the pulling effect,and in the fully developed area,the financial improvement can weaken the crowding out effect.The reason may be caused by the strong linkage effect of real estate on other real economy industries in the economically developed areas and the weak linkage effect in underdeveloped areas.Finally,according to the empirical conclusion,the following policy suggestions are put forward for different subjects: the government guides rational housing demand,reduces excessive market intervention and improves support for R&D funds;the financial sector lowers financing threshold and expands financing channels;real estate enterprises innovate services to meet differentiated needs;real economy enterprises attach importance to innovation and increase capital investment in R&D activities. |
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