Studies On The Relationship Between Real Estate Industry And Economic Growth In China

At present, China’s economic development has entered a new normal,this is a period of contradictions burst and depth adjustment of interest pattern,due to the longer real estate industry chain and a lot of peripheral industries,it has an important position in the development of national economy for so long.At the same time,with the imbalance of regional economic development in our country and the regional difference is greater,The research of relationship between real estate industry and economic development of various areas in China has important theoretical and practical significance,provide relevant measures and policy recommendations for the development of the regional real estate industry.First of all, this paper selects GDP, per capita disposable income, real estate investment, commercial housing sales, the number of resident population and other real estate-related indicators, with Q-type system clustering analysis method, according to the classification results of 2003-2014, According to the level of real estate development,the 31 provincial capital cities of China are divided into three categories.Secondly, based on the comparative analysis of real estate current development in three types of cities,build the dynamic panel VAR model with supply and demand of real estate, non-real estate investment and economic growth in three kinds of areas,using panel data of 31 provincial capital cities of China during 2003-2014 for empirical research.The empirical results shows:first, the Granger causality tests indicates that the real estate investment and real estate purchase is a one-way Granger cause of economic growth in the third class cities,the real estate investment acts as a stimulus to non real estate investment in first class cities,the non real estate investment acts as a stimulus to real estate investment in second class cities and the third class cities.Secondly, pulse reflects that the most important factor of real estate purchase of the first class cities is non-real estate investment, the most important factor of non-real estate investment of the second class cities is real estate purchase,the most important factor of real estate investment of the third class cities is real estate purchase,and these influences are constantly enhanced.Third, based on cobb-douglas (c-d) production function and above-mentioned analysis results, using GMM method and the panel data during 2003-2014, build the real estate purchase model,real estate investment model and non-real estate investment model in three types of cities and makes a practical research. The empirical results show that different areas interplay between real estate purchase, real estate investment, non-real estate investment and economic growth are different:the greatest impact factors on economic growth of the first class cities, second class cities and the third class cities are real estate purchase, non-real estate investment and real estate investment, respectively, the most important factor of real estate purchase of the first class cities is non-real estate purchase,the non-real estate investment of the second class cities can crowd out real estate investment, the most important factor of real estate investment of the third class cities are economic growth and non-real estate investment.Finally, according to the results, provide corresponding policies and advices of the regional real estate industry in China.