| Although the central government has issued some documents in recent years to control the local authorities’ hidden debts,the amount of debt in my country is still increasing,and the risk of hidden debt for local authorities is increasing.The instability of land finance not only makes provincial governments highly reliant on land finance to accumulate a large number of hidden risks,but also the demand for regional infrastructure investment makes local governments turn to shadow banking channels to raise debt financing,laying hidden dangers for hidden debt risks.Mechanisms of interaction between agricultural finance,the shadow banking system and hidden risks of municipal bonds should therefore be identified.First,at the theoretical level,this paper combs domestic and foreign literature,summarizes the relationship between the two,and defines the concept of land and three,explains the advantages and disadvantages of setting up land-based capital,the way of influence of shadow banking,and the evolution of hidden debt of local governments.From an empirical perspective investment side,this paper measures the hidden debt increment and stock matrix scale data of 30 provinces in China(excluding Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2010 to 2020,and analyzes the hidden debt from the horizontal and vertical dimensions.Changes in size.At the same time,referring to multiple literatures,the government’s debt service level and fiscal revenue-generating capacity are further decomposed into 12 risk index factors such as implicit debt ratio,debt burden ratio and debt dependence.From 2010 to 2020,the implicit debt risk index system of local governments in each province is calculated by the CRITIC-TOPSIS method.On this basis,a two-way fixed effect model is constructed to study the relationship between the three affect the relationship.The empirical analysis found that:1.If the scale of land finance increases by one percentage point,the hidden risk of government debt will be reduced by 0.035 percentage points.The expansion of the scope of land finance has enhanced the government’s ability to use it as a guarantee and mortgage,and the government’s implicit debt risk has been reduced,thereby enhancing the local economic strength through loan financing from commercial banks.2.Municipal implicit debt risk has obvious regional heterogeneity.Mainly by the industrial economic structure,geographical location and financial strength and other factors.Compared with the western provinces,the government itself has a stronger ability to resist hidden risks.3.The scale of land finance and the scale of shadow banking show an ebb and flow relationship.The former changes by one unit,and the latter changes by 0.047 units.The size of shadow banking is a positive driver of hidden risk.When it increases by 1 percentage point,the hidden debt risk of local governments increases by 0.087 percentage points. |
