Research On The Relationship Between Agricultural Science And Technology Investment And Agricultural Economic Growth Based On VAR Model

As the primary productive force,science and technology can not only provide an inexhaustible driving force for the sustainable development of agricultural economy,but also provide a solid foundation for the realization of agricultural modernization.In recent years,China has clearly proposed to attach importance to agricultural scientific and technological innovation.For example,the No.1 important document of the central government in 2019 and 2020 focuses on accelerating the research and development of key technologies for agricultural innovation in China;In 2021,the No.1 central document of the Central Committee proposed to strengthen the support of modern agricultural technology,materials and equipment,and accelerate agricultural modernization.China’s agricultural science and technology development needs to achieve the above goals.Therefore,all localities have actively developed a large number of new agricultural science and technology demonstration parks,agricultural enterprises,farmers’ professional cooperatives and farmers’ family farms,so as to promote the rapid transformation and healthy development of China’s agricultural collective economy.During the 14 th Five Year Plan period,the research and development of agricultural scientific and technological achievements,modern agricultural seed industry and advanced production machinery and equipment have greatly improved the technical efficiency of China’s agricultural machinery production,and the contribution rate of China’s agricultural scientific and technological progress will exceed 60% in 2020.Since 2009,the overall proportion of the investment and expenditure of key agricultural science and technology projects in the total expenditure of China’s science and technology industry has fluctuated between 6.4% and 7.4%.The insufficient investment and support of agricultural science and technology projects will seriously hinder the healthy development of China’s agricultural real economy and affect the increase of farmers’ employment and income.Therefore,it is necessary to continue to increase the investment in supporting key agricultural science and technology projects,make effective use of agricultural human capital and promote the transformation of agricultural development from increasing production to increasing quality,However,the strong support of science and technology investment directly affects the improvement of science and technology level,especially the structure and intensity of agricultural science and technology investment,which will directly affect the quality of agricultural economic development.In order to explore the impact of agricultural science and technology on agricultural economic growth,we must clarify the relationship between them.This paper takes solving these problems as the starting point.Firstly,this paper systematically expounds the action mechanism of agricultural science and technology investment and agricultural economic growth from the theoretical level;Then,taking the provinces and cities of the Yangtze River economic belt as the research object,this paper evaluates the agricultural production efficiency of 11 regions of the Yangtze River economic belt from 2015 to 2019 by using the Three-stage DEA method,and comes to the conclusion that the comprehensive efficiency of agricultural production in Anhui Province is relatively the lowest in the study area,including the ineffectiveness of pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency;Finally,using the time series data of Anhui Province from 2005 to 2019,this paper studies the relationship between agricultural science and technology investment and agricultural economic growth with the help of vector regression model(VAR).As a large agricultural province,Anhui Province has continuously expanded the scale of science and technology investment in recent years,but there are still some problems,including unreasonable proportion of capital investment,low allocation and efficiency of scientific research resources,and serious brain drain of agricultural science and technology,which limits the improvement of agricultural production efficiency and the development of agricultural economy in Anhui Province.Therefore,how to improve the quality of agricultural economic development and optimize the allocation of scientific and technological resources has become an urgent problem to be solved.Is the allocation structure of agricultural scientific and technological resources in Anhui Province reasonable? Can it provide sustainable guarantee for agricultural scientific and technological innovation in Anhui Province? Scientific research on the above problems is very necessary to promote the sustainable development of agricultural economy.This paper aims to explore the methods to improve the allocation efficiency of agricultural science and technology resources and optimize the investment structure of agricultural science and technology in Anhui Province.In the empirical analysis of the relationship between the scale of agricultural science and technology investment and agricultural economic growth,the estimation results of VAR model show that when it lags behind the second phase,there is a negative effect between the total power of agricultural machinery,agricultural R&D investment and agricultural science and technology personnel investment and the added value of agricultural production value.Through impulse response,it is found that agricultural scientific and technological talents can promote the development of agricultural economy,but the response is weak,indicating that the role of scientific and technological talents in promoting agricultural economic growth has not been brought into full play.Through variance decomposition,it can be concluded that with the passage of time,the agricultural economic growth in Anhui Province is mainly caused by the expenditure of agricultural science and technology funds,in addition to its own impact.When analyzing the current situation of agricultural science and technology investment structure in Anhui Province,the grey correlation analysis method is used to test the correlation between them.It is found that the three indicators of agricultural R&D basic research funds,agricultural R&D personnel and the purchase cost of agricultural science and technology equipment have a great correlation with agricultural economic growth;Finally,from the aspects of increasing investment in agricultural science and technology,actively improving scientific and technological innovation mechanism,promoting the transformation of agricultural industrial structure,strengthening the protection of agricultural scientific research achievements and strengthening the construction of agricultural scientific research extension team,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to optimize the allocation of agricultural science and technology resources,in order to give better play to the promoting role of agricultural science and technology in rural revitalization,so as to promote the development of agricultural modernization.