Research On The Impact Of Performance Forecast On The Market Effect Of Financial Results

In China’s capital securities market,investors have much less knowledge of corporate information than the management of listed companies.Because only the management of the listed company disclosed the performance forecast,investors have the opportunity to understand the business information.And the management of listed companies disclosed the performance of different forms,the content is not the same.Performance forecast as a kind of financial report released before the report period or the future performance forecast announcement,can let investors understand the company’s business performance information in advance,to release a certain degree of market risk,alleviate the stock price fluctuations after earnings disclosure,promote the good development of China’s capital securities market.All kinds of performance forecasts will affect investors’ judgment about the quality of business operations,and then reflected in the stock price.Because the disclosure of performance notice has practical significance to ease the information asymmetry level in China’s capital securities market,a large number of scholars began to try to study the market effect of performance notice from different perspectives.This paper summarizes and states the relevant literature research results and related theories,and puts forward the analysis hypothesis of the performance forecast on the market effect of the financial results.This paper selects the A-share companies that have released quarterly and annual performance forecasts from 2018 to 2020 as the sample.We will divide the sample data into good news preview group and good news preview group according to whether the forecast is good news.First of all,the event research method is used to calculate the average abnormal return rate of individual stocks and the cumulative average abnormal return rate of individual stocks during the window period of financial announcement events,and then compare to explore the relationship between the market effect of performance forecast and the market effect of financial results.Then,through the construction of linear regression model,the specific influence and degree of the market effect and the market effect of the financial report are analyzed.The empirical findings are as follows:(1)for companies with good news forecasts,the market effect of performance forecasts has no significant impact on the market effect of financial statements;for companies with bad news forecasts,the market effect of performance forecast has a significant impact on the market effect of financial statements.(2)for companies with good news forecast,the accuracy of performance forecast has a significant positive correlation with the market effect of financial statements;for companies with bad news forecast,the accuracy of performance forecast does not affect the market effect of formal financial statements.(3)for the companies with good news,the timeliness of performance forecast has a significant negative correlation with the market effect of financial statements;for the companies with bad news forecast,the timeliness of performance forecast has no significant correlation with the market effect of financial statements.The empirical results show that the market does not ignore the bad news when the performance forecast is disclosed,and investors treat the bad news forecast rationally.Because the investment attention is limited,the influence of the good news forecast to the financial report market effect is not consistent with the bad news to the financial report market effect.On the subject of study,this paper adds six types of forecast data: big increase,big decrease,slight increase,slight decrease,continued profit and continued loss on the basis of the first-loss type and the type which turns from deficits to profits;from a research perspective,it is the first time to study the impact of performance forecast on the market effect of financial statements based on the quality characteristics of performance forecast;in terms of research content,it’s the first time to study the impact of performance forecast on the market effect of financial statements by introducing the index of the accuracy of performance forecast,realizing the enrichment of the related content of the research on the effect of the performance forecast on the financial report market.