Empirical Research On The Effect Of Stock Repurchase On The Quality Of Performance Forecast

Stock repurchase is the act of a listed company using its own cash to repurchase a certain number of issued shares on the stock market.In foreign stock markets,stock repurchases can often replace cash dividends,increase earnings per share by reducing the number of shares in circulation,and achieve the effect of optimizing the capital structure,thereby protecting the rights and interests of investors.Although the development history of China's securities market is short,the government departments have provided a good development environment for stock repurchases through the revision and improvement of relevant regulations and policies.With the improvement of the system,the research on stock repurchase has become more and more abundant,but there is little literature on the impact of stock repurchase on corporate governance from the perspective of performance forecast.As information disclosure is an important factor reflecting corporate governance,as one of the main disclosure methods is the performance forecast,which can convey the company's operating information to investors and reflect the corporate governance situation from the side.Therefore,in view of whether the stock repurchase will affect the disclosure of earnings forecast,this article uses empirical research methods to deeply explore the relationship between stock repurchase and the quality of earnings forecast.It has important theoretical and realistic significance.The article is divided into five chapters.The first chapter is the introduction part of the whole article.In this part,the research background,significance,content and ideas of the article are combed in detail,the methods used in the research process are explained,and then the innovations of this article are proposed,and the research literature on stock repurchase and performance forecast is reviewed.The second chapter is the definition and theoretical basis of related concepts.It mainly defines the concepts of stock repurchase and performance forecast quality,and uses four theories of free cash flow theory,information transfer theory,incentive theory and financial leverage theory to demonstrate the mechanism of action.The third chapter is the theoretical analysis and hypothesis.This chapter describes the current situation of the development of stock repurchase and performance forecast in China,sorts out the mechanism of the effect of stock repurchase on the quality of performance forecast,and then analyzes the difference of the relationship between the two under different degrees of marketization,and how enterprise performance as an intermediary variable exerts effects in the two.The fourth chapter is an empirical test,which selects China's A-share listed companies from 2008 to 2018 as research samples to test the effect of stock repurchase on the quality of performance forecast,and further analyze the impact of the degree of marketization on the relationship between the two and the partial mediation effect of corporate performance.The fifth chapter is the research conclusions and policy recommendations.The research finds:(1)The stock repurchase has a significant positive correlation with the quality of performance forecast.The higher the proportion of stock repurchase,the higher the precision and accuracy of performance forecast;(2)Limiting other conditions,the higher the degree of marketization,the more significant the positive effect of the share repurchase on the precision and accuracy of performance forecast;(3)Corporate performance plays an intermediary role in the process of stock repurchase affecting the quality of performance forecast.The contributions of this article are:(1)From a theoretical perspective,it explains the effect of stock repurchases on the quality of performance forecasts.Most of the existing literature focuses on the impact of stock repurchases on the company's stock price and operating performance.Few literature analyzes the impact of stock repurchases on corporate governance from the perspective of performance forecasting.This article starts from the perspective of stock repurchases,examines the relationship between it and the quality of performance forecast,enriches the theoretical research results of stock repurchase,and expands the research on the factors affecting the quality of performance forecast;(2)From an empirical perspective,differ from the previous event research method,this article uses relevant sample data for empirical testing,and fully considers the difference in the impact of stock repurchase on the quality of performance forecast under different marketization degrees,at the same time,it detects the intermediary effect of corporate performance in the relationship between the two.Finally,it proposes policy recommendations for the empirical research results to provide a reference for improving the stock repurchase system and the performance forecast disclosure system.