Research On The Assessment Model Of Goodwill Impairment Risk In Media Industry

In order to promote the transformation and upgrading of the economy and help the healthy development of the industry,the regulatory authorities successively issued new policies adapted to the capital market environment in 2014-2015.Driven by the favorable policies of the state,listed companies took advantage of the momentum to start a wave of mergers and acquisitions.However,in mergers and acquisitions transactions,the existence of the phenomenon of excessive merger consideration and unreasonable performance commitments has pushed up the goodwill of enterprise mergers,and the continuous growth of goodwill scale has produced a large number of goodwill bubbles.That is to say,with the active mergers and acquisitions,the risk of goodwill impairment has become a sword of Damocles hanging over the listed companies.Due to the industry characteristics of "light assets and high valuation",media enterprises will generate a large amount of goodwill when they expand externally,and the risk of goodwill impairment is also closely followed.The receding wave of mergers and acquisitions and the successive expiration of performance commitments have led to the increasingly prominent risk of corporate goodwill impairment.The frequent occurrence of goodwill explosions since2018 is precisely because the market is gradually releasing the risk of goodwill impairment.The media industry is the hardest hit area for goodwill impairment risks,and evaluating its goodwill impairment risks is the key to promoting the healthy development of the market.On the basis of sorting out the existing literature and theories,this paper selects 18 assessments from three levels of financial reporting motivation,internal and external environment and M&A characteristics by analyzing the characteristics of goodwill impairment in the media industry and the influencing factors of goodwill impairment risk.indicators,and build a goodwill impairment risk assessment system.Based on the data of A-share listed companies in the media industry from 2007 to 2020,this paper uses Logistic regression and BP neural network to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the goodwill impairment risk of the media industry enterprises,so as to determine the goodwill impairment risk assessment model.It is found that the provision of goodwill impairment by the media industry enterprises will be affected by the financial reporting motivation,internal and external environment and M&A characteristics.From the perspective of model prediction accuracy,BP neural network is stronger than the prediction effect of logistic regression model.Two models are used to evaluate the goodwill impairment risk of the case company,which is Wanda Film,to verify the feasibility of the goodwill impairment risk assessment system,to analyze the causes of Wanda Film’s goodwill impairment,and to put forward corresponding preventive measures.The conclusions of the paper are helpful for timely detection and accurate assessment of goodwill impairment risk,and provide reference for listed companies,investors and regulators to prevent and resolve goodwill impairment risk.