Research On The Impact Of Loan Restriction Police In Housing Price

Since the reform and opening up,China’s housing market has developed vigorously.Whether it is the expansion of the country’s housing market as a whole,or the saturation of housing market in the east,the West and the northeast,it shows the maturity and integrity of China’s housing market.However,the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis in 2008 led to the shock of China’s housing market and the emergence of real estate bubble,which highlighted the overall stability of China’s housing market.In recent years,the improvement of social and economic level and residents’ consumption level promotes the continuous rise of housing prices,and the housing market in various regions shows great differences in maturity and development level.Housing prices in eastern China are generally on the high side.Housing prices in first-tier cities such as Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen are much higher than the national average.In the central and western regions,housing prices have declined in some areas,except for higher housing prices in Chengdu and Chongqing.At the same time,due to regional economic differences,there are also great differences in housing regulation policies.The housing market is closely related to people’s life and the development of social industry,so it is of vital importance to maintain the stability of the housing market and control the housing price within a reasonable range,which is also one of the goals that the relevant government departments strive to achieve.We adopted restrictive housing policies to control housing prices and implemented them across the country.Among them,the loan restriction policy represented by interest rate and mortgage down payment ratio plays a greater role.Therefore,interest rate,mortgage down payment ratio and other loan policy indicators are selected as dependent variables.At the same time,in order to ensure the integrity of the study,real estate development investment is introduced as a control variable to increase the feasibility and persuasion of the study.In this thesis,the monthly data of each indicator from June 2010 to May 2021 are selected and adjusted by statistical methods.Based on the housing market theory,this thesis constructs the SVAR model and conducts an empirical study by using ADF test,impulse response and variance decomposition method.It is found that interest rate has a negative relationship with the whole country and all regions,that is,raising interest rate can restrain the rise of housing price.The down-payment ratio of mortgage loans has a short-term positive effect on national housing prices,that is,increasing down-payment ratio of mortgage loans will promote housing prices to rise in the initial stage.In the middle and later period,the down-payment ratio of mortgage loans has a negative effect on housing prices nationwide,that is,increasing the down-payment ratio of mortgage loans can restrain housing prices.At the same time,the mortgage down payment ratio has a consistent positive effect on housing prices in the four regions,which is consistent with the initial effect of the mortgage down payment ratio at the national level.The increased investment in real estate development will promote the rise of housing prices at the national level and in the middle and later stages of the eastern region,while restraining the rise of housing prices in the central,western and northeastern regions.Through variance decomposition,it is found that the impact of interest rate on national housing price is greater than the other two variables,and the impact of interest rate on regional housing price is less than other variables.The effect of the down payment ratio on housing prices in eastern,central and western regions is greater than other variables.The real estate development investment in northeast China has a greater impact on housing prices.Therefore,the government can adjust the interest rate more and pay attention to the role of real estate development and investment in the national housing market regulation.In order to ensure the steady development of housing market,all regions should make proper use of policy "combination fist" based on the local overall credit environment,interest rate marketization level and housing demand.