Aysis Of Impact Of Extreme Climate Events On Nalagricultural Economy In Anhui

Using the data of daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, dailymean temperature and daily precipitation of17cities in Anhui on1962~2011, the days ofextreme maximum temperature, extreme minimum temperature, extreme precipitation anddrought of17cities in Anhui every year were counted by the centesimal value method andmodifying Palmer drought index, and then, their spatial characteristics and tend wereanalyzed. Based on these, build four SVAR models by time series (in lag) of output valueof agriculture, gross domestic product, agricultural machinery gross power with days offour types extreme climate events respectively in Anhui on1988~2010, and then, theimpact of extreme climate events on Agricultural Economy were empirical analyzed basedon these four SVAR models. The main conclusions gained are as follows:⑴T he days of extreme maximum temperature in Anhui averaged43.57d per year andappears spatial distributing characteristics on a diminishing scale from south to north. Thedays of extreme maximum temperature increased significantly with0.36d/a, this trendappears spatial distributing characteristics on decreases gradually from the area around theYangtze River to north and south of Anhui, and no significant change in the area alongHuaihe River and north of the Huaihe River. The days of extreme maximum temperaturemake very significant contributions to agricultural economy, it is the major factorsaffecting of agricultural economy. When the days of extreme maximum temperatureincrease, the agricultural economy growth slow down, this negative impact willaccumulate and reach maximum5years later, and reduce gradually then.⑵The days of extreme minimum temperature in Anhui averaged37.32d per year, andappears spatial distributing characteristics on a diminishing scale from west to east andfrom north to south. The days of extreme minimum temperature decreased significantlywith0.81d/a, all the17cities appear the same trend and the greatest decrease occurred innorthwest of Anhui, the weakest decrease occurred in Huangshan city. The contributionsof the days of extreme minimum temperature to agricultural economy are limited in shortorder, but become more apparent over time, it is a more important affecting of agricultural economy. When the days of extreme minimum temperature decrease, the agriculturaleconomy growth slow down, this impact will accumulate and reach maximum5yearslater, and reduce gradually then. From8years later when the days of extreme minimumtemperature decrease, the agricultural economy growth accelerated.⑶The days of extreme precipitation in Anhui averaged37.32d per year, and appearsspatial distributing characteristics on a diminishing scale from south to north. The days ofextreme precipitation increased significantly only in Huangshan city. The contributions ofthe days of extreme precipitation to agricultural economy are very limited, it is not animportant affecting of agricultural economy. When the days of extreme increase, theagricultural economy growth accelerated, this impact will accumulate and reach maximum3years later.⑷The months of drought in Anhui averaged2.2months per year, and appears spatialdistributing characteristics on excessive in Anqin and Xuancheng city, short in southernpart of the south of Yangtze River valley, eastern part of around the Yangtze River, easternpart of around the Huaihe River and north of the Huaihe River. The months of droughtincreased significantly only in Suzhou and Anqing city. The contributions of the months ofdrought to agricultural economy are significant, it is a more important affecting ofagricultural economy. When the months of drought increase, the agricultural economygrowth slow down, this negative impact will accumulate and reach maximum7years later,and reduce gradually then.