| Since the reform and opening up,with the acceleration of urbanization,real estate has experienced brilliant three decades and played an irreplaceable role in national economic growth and socialist construction.However,the real estate price is falsely high,the market foam is getting bigger and bigger,and the real estate price deviates from the use price seriously.In order to avoid the negative impact of the upsurge in real estate,the state has issued a series of policies to determine the positioning of "no speculation in real estate" to curb all kinds of speculation and leveraged buying.In 2021,a number of real estate enterprises experienced thunderstorms and systemic risks.In addition to the impact of the COVID-19 in 2020 and policy fluctuations,the main reason was the blind expansion of real estate investment and construction scale,the high debt scale,and the real estate enterprises did not pay attention to the prevention and control of financial risks.Therefore,in the context of the new era,financial risks were discovered in advance,To avoid the occurrence of risk has become one of the management priorities of real estate enterprises.Based on this,this paper takes xhl enterprises as the research object,and mainly discusses the financial risk early warning mechanism of xhl real estate enterprises.Firstly,this paper introduces the research background,significance and research status at home and abroad.Secondly,according to the risk management theory,economic cycle theory and system dynamics related basic theories,this paper analyzes the main types and causes of financial risks in the real estate industry.Based on this,it analyzes the problems existing in the financial risk management of xhl enterprises and the current situation of financial early warning of xhl enterprises.It is concluded that the fundamental reason for the occurrence of financial risks is that the early warning system is unscientific.After that,the method of establishing the early warning model is sought.In order to make the early warning model universal,this paper collects the financial data of 126 listed companies in China’s A-share real estate industry from 2018 to 2020,selects 25 evaluation indicators,reduces the dimension through the factor analysis method,and uses the logistic binary regression analysis method to build the enterprise financial risk early warning model and calculate the risk occurrence probability of each enterprise.This model is applied to xhl enterprises for empirical analysis to verify the effectiveness of the risk early warning model and explore the application effect of the early warning model in real estate enterprises.Finally,according to the existing risk management problems of xhl enterprises and the empirical analysis results of the model,this paper puts forward the financial risk prevention and management measures of xhl enterprises. |
