Export Resilience And Its Influencing Factors In The Yangtze River Delta Region From The Perspective Of Heterogeneity

In recent years,trade protectionism,anti-globalization and china-us trade frictions have been spreading,and various external shocks have significantly increased domestic instability and uncertainties.Back in 2014,General Secretary Xi Jinping has stressed the need to increase China’s economic resilience to ward off risks;By 2020,under the new normal and new background,the impact of the outbreak of COVID-19 on China’s economy will shift from the supply side to the demand side,that is,the impact of China-Us trade and COVID-19 has caused a significant reduction in external demand.At this time,it is particularly important to study export resilience.Study the financial crisis of 2008 found that the global economic downturn,a straight line to reduce external demand,under the condition of different areas of the financial crisis of the impact of expression is not the same,or even difference is very big,so need to adopt the average effect of heterogeneity perspective instead of groups,to explore the differences of different regions on the natural endowment of how to cope with the impact performance influence area.As the only world-class urban agglomeration in China,the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has undertaken a large number of industrial transfer from Japan,South Korea,Europe and the United States,laid a manufacturing foundation,and formed an export-oriented industrial cluster,which is a new window and platform for China’s foreign trade.Therefore,what is the export resilience of the Yangtze River Delta region from the perspective of heterogeneity under the background of double circulation? How’s that? What are the influencing factors? It has obvious theoretical and practical significance to better study the development of China’s export trade under the double cycle.From the evolutionary perspective,the theoretical basis of export resilience can be divided into four conceptual frameworks: one is Darwinism in a broad sense,emphasizing diversity and selection;The second is path dependence theory,which focuses on historical continuity,"locking" and path creation.The third is the theory of complex adaptive systems,which emphasizes self-organization,nonlinear and adaptive growth.The fourth is chaos,which explicitly links resilience to the "adaptive cycle".This paper applies the theory of export resilience to the study of 27 cities in the Yangtze River Delta.Firstly,a comprehensive index system of export resilience is determined according to the influencing factors of export resilience.Secondly,27 cities in the Yangtze River Delta are automatically divided into 5 different types by cluster analysis.In order to further understand the differences between the Yangtze River Delta regions,the entropy method was used to calculate the comprehensive export toughness index and the phased index of each region.Finally,in order to determine the specific influencing factors of export toughness in each type of region,correlation analysis was used to analyze the data of different types of regions.The results show that the heterogeneity of export resilience of 27 cities in the Yangtze River Delta exists objectively and cannot be ignored,which leads to the difference of export resilience among different cities.The spatial distribution of different types of areas has certain regularity,and the same type of areas tend to be concentrated together with certain geographical proximity.In the three stages of export resilience,the influencing factors of different types of export resilience cities have different emphasis.For all regions,export scale and export structure are important influencing factors of export resilience.Therefore,in order to promote the export of Yangtze river delta region and even the more cities toughness level,should know all kinds of impact through the export channels on regional asymmetric effect,understand the regional heterogeneity and diversity,at the same time,according to its own conditions in the region,realize the impact part of its export toughness may be different,targeted to coordinate in different parts of the export policy,The better to boost export resilience across all regions.