Simulation Study On Dynamic Evolution Of Household Comprehensive Energy Adoption Willingnes

In recent years,as countries around the world put forward the goal of achieving carbon neutrality,building a low-carbon sustainable energy system has become the focus of energy development around the world.In the future,as the energy market becomes more and more mature,it is imperative to develop an environment-friendly energy consumption model.Household Integrated Energy is an energy innovation that promotes the consumption of renewable energy in the residential sector and reduces fossil energy consumption and carbon emissions.By studying the optimization and adjustment strategies of its related influencing factors,the rapid development of household integrated energy can be promoted in the future.According to the Innovation Diffusion Theory,considering the participation of household integrated energy,residents should be divided into different innovation sub-groups for analysis.Differentiated guidance strategies are adopted for residents of different innovative sub-groups to improve the promotion efficiency of household integrated energy.Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior(TPB)in social psychology,this paper integrates the altruistic values of the Value-Belief-Normal(VBN)Theory,and constructs a structural model to analyze the influence mechanism of the residents’ household integrated energy adoption willingness.Secondly,according to the degree of innovation,the residents are divided into three innovation sub-groups: "Early Adopters","Mid-term Adopters" and "Late Adopters",and analyze the differences in characteristics of the three types of innovation sub-groups.Then,the system dynamics model of the dynamic evolution of residents’ willingness to adopt household integrated energy is constructed by using the system dynamics method.Determine the parameters of the system dynamics model by orthogonal experimental design and regression analysis.Finally,the future development trend of residents’ willingness to adopt household integrated energy is predicted through the simulation results,and the impact of the investment required for unit power generation on the diffusion growth of adoption willingness is analyzed.The results of this study show that,the household integrated energy adoption rates of Early Adopters,Mid-term Adopters and Late Adopters are all positively affected by the proportion of participating households in the community,the growth rate of the number of participating households compared to last year,and the investment required to generate electricity per unit.Among them,for Early Adopters,the proportion of participating households in the community has the greatest influence.For other groups,the growth rate of the number of participating households over the previous year has the greatest influence.In general,the greater the proportion of participating households in the community,the higher the growth rate of the number of participating households compared with last year,and the lower the investment required for unit power generation,the more residents are willing to adopt household integrated energy.The investment required per unit of electricity consumption contributes to the diffusion of growth in the willingness to adopt household integrated energy in Early Adopter,Mid-term Adopter,Late Adopter and overall adopter.The lower the investment required for unit power generation,the faster the diffusion speed,the shorter the diffusion time,and the stronger the residents’ willingness to adopt.