Study On The Development Trend Of Modern Agricultural Economy In Heilongjiang Province

As a country with a long history of agricultural civilization,China has thousands of years of traditional thought of emphasizing agriculture.Since the founding of new China,the development of agricultural economy has always been the cornerstone of solving people’s livelihood problems and the foundation of the development of other industries,China must be self reliant and hold fast to "China’s own rice bowl".The foundation of all economic development is the agricultural economy as the primary industry.Food security and agricultural modernization are the first keys to solve this series of problems.Heilongjiang Province is an important agricultural province in China.It is China’s main grain producing area and commodity grain base.The development degree of Heilongjiang agricultural economy directly affects the national agricultural economic situation,and its development stability directly affects the overall level of China’s agricultural economic development.This thesis selects the synchronization index for Heilongjiang Gross Agricultural Product,the leading index for agricultural land status and Gross grain production,the lagging index for green food industry as the research object to study the development trend of modern agricultural economy in Heilongjiang.Based on combing domestic and foreign research theories at systematically,drawing on the experience of agricultural economic development at home and abroad,and collecting and mining the data information of agricultural economic development in Heilongjiang Province,this thesis constructs the ARIMA(P,q)time series analysis model of Heilongjiang Gross Agricultural Product.SWOT analysis method is used to analyze the development trend of modern agricultural economy comprehensively and systematically in Heilongjiang.The advantages of Heilongjiang agricultural economy are reflected in natural resource endowment,long inheritance of agricultural culture and wide application of agricultural technology;Its disadvantages include the relative surplus of rural labor force,the unbalanced development of regional agricultural economy and the unreasonable layout of agricultural economic structure;External opportunities include sound agricultural policies and systems and the development of rural e-commerce;The threat is the serious pollution of agricultural environment and the excessive utilization of agricultural resources.Combined with the above analysis,this thesis puts forward the development strategy of agricultural economy in Heilongjiang.Give full play to the comparative advantages of Heilongjiang’s agricultural resource endowment;Comprehensively solve the problem of improving the quality of agricultural labor force;Deepen agricultural commercial potential and improve the quality and efficiency of modern agricultural development;One belt,one road,is developed by relying on the regional advantages and actively developing foreign trade.This thesis makes innovations in both theory and method,In terms of theory,this study is based on the theory of productivity and production relations and the theory of main social contradictions of Marxist historical materialism,which broadens the research horizon of the development trend of agricultural economy.In terms of methods,this study constructs a time series analysis model to fit the main economic indicators of agricultural economic development in Heilongjiang Province,agricultural GDP,sort out other economic indicators in time order,predict the future development trend of agricultural economy in Heilongjiang Province,and improve the scientific standardization of the research.