Research On Investment Decision Of Commercial Complex Project Based On Real Option

In recent years,with the increase of population and the decrease of land resources,real estate developers have begun to invest in high-intensity and high-yield commercial complex projects.However,due to the high uncertainty of commercial complexes,investment decisions are difficult,and real options can better deal with uncertain projects.Aiming at the investment decision-making problem of commercial complex projects,based on the methods of differential equations and probability theory,this paper constructs a BS pricing model for commercial complex projects based on real options theory,and comprehensively uses MATLAB,Excel and Crystal Ball software to solve the commercial complex project.The option value and project value can provide theoretical guidance for the investment decisions of other similar projects.From the perspective of investors,this paper firstly summarizes and summarizes domestic and foreign researches on real option theory,commercial complexes and project investment decision-making,compares and analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of real option method and traditional investment decision-making method,and proposes the use of extended Net present value is used to measure project value,and the applicability of the real option method for investment decision-making in commercial complex projects is analyzed.Secondly,combined with the characteristics of commercial complex projects,a commercial complex project based on the real option method is constructed.The theoretical framework of investment decision-making,the framework process is from project classification,to option identification,to pricing model selection,to model parameter estimation,to calculation of option value,and finally to sensitivity analysis.Then,taking the Ganzhou Economic Development Zone commercial complex Jiafu Wanda Plaza project as an example,according to the basic situation of the project,the CAPM method is used to determine the discount rate,the cash flow statement is constructed,and the NPV method is used to calculate the project under the traditional investment decision-making method.The value of the project construction period is-168.066 million yuan,and the net present value of the operation period is 2,039.2352 million yuan.According to the real situation of the project,it is identified that the project construction period contains delay options,and the operation period contains expansion and conversion options,and the BS pricing model is parameterized.Estimate the four parameter values of the underlying asset,execution price,risk-free interest rate,and expiration time,and then use the Monte Carlo simulation method to estimate the volatility parameter through Crystal Ball software,and bring the estimated five parameter values into the BS pricing model to get a delay The option value is 401,243,294 yuan,the expansion option value is2,682,667,114 yuan,the conversion option value is 2,317,032,229 yuan,and the comprehensive net present value is obtained.,so the construction period of the project can be delayed for two years,and the expansion and conversion of the project can be carried out during the operation period;finally,use MATLAB to draw the sensitivity curve between the parameters and the option value,the price of the underlying asset,the strike price and the volatility to the option value Higher,these three parameters need to be controlled in the investment process.To sum up,through empirical analysis,this paper shows that real options are feasible and scientific in investment decision-making in commercial complex projects,can make decisions flexibly,bring greater value to the project,and have high practical significance.