Internal Contagion Analysis Of Default Risk Of Founder Group

Driven by economic and social development,enterprise groups are playing an increasingly important role.Large enterprise groups have the characteristics of large scale,wide business scope and complex ownership structure.The higher the degree of association of members within the group,the more prone it is to risk contagion.When a risk event occurs within the group,the risk will be spread through the equity control chain and related party transaction chain among member companies,so that more internal member companies will have risks and affect the whole group.This paper studies the internal risk contagion of enterprise groups,which can provide suggestions for enterprise groups to prevent credit risk contagion in the process of development and avoid the whole group falling into risk crisis.As a typical large state-owned enterprise group in China,the fate of Founder Group in Peking University is unexpected.Although it has the background of Peking University,it is still a leader in the information technology industry from the beginning and finally to the end of restructuring.Founder Group in recent years,frequent risk events,constantly punished by the CSRC,the resulting debt problems have also attracted people’s attention.This paper selects Founder Group as the object for analysis to study its internal default risk contagion.By analyzing the internal equity control chain,related guarantee and related transaction of Founder Group,the reasons for the internal contagion of default risk are found.Then,the KMV model is used to determine whether there is risk contagion effect in the listed companies of Founder Group,and the path of internal risk contagion is specifically found through the Garch-Copula model.Make the network diagram of internal contagion of default risk,identify the key nodes,and finally make a summary of the content analyzed in this paper and put forward relevant suggestions for enterprise groups.Based on the above analysis,the research results of this paper are as follows: First,default events occur on the basis of equity control chain,related guarantee and related transaction,which promote the occurrence of default risk contagion within enterprise groups;Secondly,the core company’s resistance to default risk contagion plays a key role.In the end,suggestions are given for enterprise groups: In the process of development,enterprise groups can control the source of infection and establish a risk early warning system in order to prevent the infection of internal default risk.Enterprise groups can use the research method of this paper for reference to judge the infection of internal risk.Secondly,cut off the risk contagion path,enterprises strengthen the management of related behavior,need reasonable guarantee evaluation before guarantee,and for the management of related transactions within enterprise groups,need to constantly improve and improve the management system;Third,enhance the immune ability of enterprise subjects,strengthen the risk control of core companies.