Study On The Influence Of Iron Ore Import Price On Capacity Utilization Of Chinese Iron And Steel Industry

Affected by the epidemic,the global economy fluctuates and China’s economy enters a new stage of development.How to build a new development model and achieve the higher goals and requirements of the 14 th Five-year Plan with high-quality development has become the key to the healthy development of China’s steel industry.At present,China is strengthening environmental pollution control,promoting air pollution reduction and achieving the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction.At the same time,the ‘double control’ policy of capacity control and output limit is put forward.Problems related to iron ore resources have become an important problem to be solved urgently in China’s iron and steel industry.Intensive study on the impact of iron ore import price on steel industry capacity utilization is of great significance to prevent excess steel industry capacity and promote the coordinated development of high quality steel industry chain.Based on this,firstly,the relevant literature at home and abroad is reviewed to provide theoretical support and research entry point for this paper.Secondly,based on the theory of price of factors of production,with the average cost and variable cost of the corresponding changes in the short-term and long-term study respectively,combining with the exogenous change,internal conduction from two aspects: direct effects and indirect effects of iron ore import prices affect the steel industry capacity utilization formation mechanism is analyzed,and put forward in this paper,the research hypothesis.Then,the current situation of China’s iron ore import and steel industry is analyzed based on relevant realistic data,aiming to understand the reality of China’s iron ore import and steel industry,analyze practical problems.Thirdly,representative downstream related industries of China’s steel industry are selected based on the measurement results of the steel industry correlation,and the transmission effect of iron ore import price on capacity utilization of the steel industry is empirically tested.Finally,a time-varying parameter state space model is constructed to empirically study the dynamic effect of iron ore import price on capacity utilization in iron and steel industry.The results show that:(1)There is a long-term relationship between iron ore import price and steel price,and iron ore import price has an obvious positive impact on steel price.(2)The positive impact of a standard unit given steel price will have a negative impact on the profit fluctuation of housing construction,metal manufacturing and automobile manufacturing.(3)The profit of the downstream related industries of the steel industry has a significant positive impact on the capacity utilization of the steel industry,which indicates that the feedback effect of the downstream related industries on the capacity utilization of the steel industry is obvious,and also indicates that the iron ore import price can conduct the capacity utilization of the steel industry through the industrial chain.(4)The import price of iron ore has a certain negative impact on the capacity utilization of China’s iron and steel industry as a whole,and is in a dynamic change,and the influence value changes with the trend of price fluctuations.Based on the above analysis and research,relevant policy suggestions are put forward for the current iron ore import price and capacity utilization status of the iron and steel industry.