Statistical Measures And Prediction Research On Overcapacity Of China's Iron And Steel Industry

Iron and steel industry is a strategic industry of national economy,and it is in the middle of the production chain.So iron and steel industry is vital for overall health and stable development of economy in our country,and it directly or indirectly affects the development of many industries.In recent years,"excess manufacturing capacity"brought great distress to the Chinese economy,which caused high attention among all circles.However,there is no official "excess manufacturing capacity" index for industries in our country at present.Only when surplus situation is very serious,which causes many economic problems,can the government introduce corresponding policies.Thus,building an accurate and sensitive system to show overcapacity situation,is of great practical significance.In this paper,by constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system,we measured comprehensive capacity utilization of iron and steel industry in China from 1997 to 2015 calendar year,and made evaluation of excess.CRITIC method was used to calculate the index weights.Measurement results showed that in 1998 and 2009,iron and steel industry in China had two lighter overcapacity,but started from 2012 to 2015,the excess capacity is more and more serious.On this basis,this paper made a prediction of overcapacity situation for the next five years.Prediction results showed that the situation of the excess will be controlled in the next two years,but starting from the third year it will be worse.The author believes that only the corresponding policy mechanism is established,can "excess manufacturing capacity" be prevented in the long run.Then,this paper puts forward the policy advice to the prevention and management of iron and steel industry overcapacity.