| Since the default of “11 Chaori Bond” in 2014,several credit crises have broken out in the domestic credit bond market.The scope of defaulting subjects has gradually expanded from private enterprises to state-owned enterprises with high credit rating,and the belief in "rigid payment" has been continuously broken.With the normalization of bond defaults,the highyield bond market continues to expand.The development of high-yield bonds provides investors with a way to revitalize default bonds and solve the problem of asset shortages.The main content of this paper is to build a logical industrial high-yield bond credit analysis framework to evaluate enterprise credit risk and guide high-yield bond investment.The first rule of investing in high-yield bonds is to avoid default,followed by higher coupons and capital gains than normal credit bonds.For defaulted bonds,the focus is on recovery rates and additional returns from asset restructuring.Therefore,investors should fully assess credit risks and expected losses before high-yield bond defaults.After high-yield bond defaults,In addition to focusing on claims,the improvement of credit qualification as a result of corporate restructuring is also an important source of capital gains.Credit fundamental analysis is an important way to solve the above problems.In the construction of credit research framework,this paper adopts a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to construct an analysis framework from macro to micro.Compared with general bonds,the credit analysis of high yield bonds has two important characteristics,one is to emphasize financial liquidity,the other is to emphasize asset value.Therefore,in addition to the operational risks reflected by macro economy,industry development and corporate governance,monetary capital,cash flow,EBITDA and other indicators are the focus of financial risk analysis.The above contents,together with external support and asset value,constitute the credit analysis of high-yield bonds.Credit analysis,along with corporate restructuring and default resolution,reflects the value of high-yield bond investments.In order to put the high-yield bond credit analysis framework into practice,this paper takes the case study of "15 Salt Lake MTN001" as the core to solve the reasons for the default of Salt Lake shares,the necessity of restructuring,the source of investment value and other related issues.Through credit analysis from macro,industrial and financial perspectives,it can be known that the reasons for the default of Salt Lake Shares come from the following complete logical chain: Poor investment decisions elongate the project cycle.In addition to budget overruns,large impairment losses eat into profits.At the same time,the difficulty of putting the project into production leads to the difficulty of fund return.In order to maintain high cash expenditure,Salt Lake could only obtain external cash flow through short debt rollover.Under the background of macroeconomic downturn,overcapacity reduction and weak financial economy of Qinghai Provincial government,the company’s internal and external cash flow dried up,finally resulting in debt default.However,in view of the high quality of salt Lake’s core assets and the high degree of regional and industrial importance,restructuring with the help of the local government is inevitable.To invest in such "fallen angels" caused by the deterioration of fundamentals as Salt Lake Shares,we should focus on the improvement of corporate credit qualification signals and grasp the importance of core asset quality,local government support and other elements. |
