Research On Total Factor Productivity And Its Influence Factors Of Grain In Fourty-nine Countries Along The "Belt And Road"

At present,China’s food supply system not only needs to cope with the peak demand caused by the approaching population peak and changes in dietary structure,it’s also constrained by resource shortages and environmental pollution.The food supply and demand will remain in a fragile state of tight balance for a long period of time in the future.In the long run,rational use of international market resources to supplement domestic supply is an inevitable choice to ensure China’s food security.With abundant resources,most of the countries along the "Belt and Road" have geographical advantages and grain production potential.Meanwhile,the "Belt and Road" initiative provides an opportunity for food exchanges and cooperation for these countries and China.Thus,it is reasonable and feasible to develop these countries into a new market for China’s grain imports.Research on the Total Factor Productivity of grains in these countries is an important basis for China to develop grain import trade with countries along the "Belt and Road".We took 49 countries along the "Belt and Road" as the sample.Firstly,we analyzed the grain production and trade of these countries,and qualitatively expounded the feasibility of China’s cooperation in grain import with these countries.We used the DEA-Malmquist to measure the grain TFP,and analyzed evolution characteristics and spatial differences of the grain TFP.Finally,we choose some factors to analyze the factors affecting their TFP of grain.On this basis,explored the impact of each factor on the TFP of grain in Asia and Europe.We found: in terms of grain production and trade,grain yield generally increased,grain harvested area decreased,and grain output showed a fluctuating upward trend,the increase of grain output was mainly from yiled.The grain yield increased in all regions,among which the yiled of Eastern Europe and Southern Europe had a larger increase.The overall grain import and export volume of these countries fluctuated and increased,and the grain export volume of all regions showed an upward trend,of which the grain export volume of Eastern Europe had the largest change Since 2005,the grain export volume of Eastern Europe always ranked first among the seven regions along the "Belt and Road".In terms of grain Total Factor Productivity,the overall grain TFP of countries along the "Belt and Road" showed a trend of continuous fluctuation.From 1994 to 2019,the overall grain TFP of these countries achieved growth.The differences in grain Total Factor Productivity among these countries first decreased,then increased,and then decreased again.The increase of grain TFP in Europe stemmed from the "single-track drive" of technological progress,and the growth of grain TFP in Asia stemmed from "dual-track driven" of technological progress and technological efficiency.From 1995 to 2019,grain TFP in Europe fluctuated greatly,and the growth in Asian countries was more stable.There were significant differences in the changes of grain total factor productivity among these countries.Pakistan’s grain total factor productivity increased the most,with an average annual growth rate of 17.5%.The growth rate of grain Total Factor Productivity in ten Asian countries including Azerbaijan and Yemen declined.As for influence factors of grain TFP in countries along the "Belt and Road",agricultural structural adjustment,the economic development,the level of urbanization,the proportion of irrigation,and the mechanical power per labor were important to promote the TFP of grain.The per capita grain sown area and grain dependence on foreign countries were negative to grain TFP of these countries.There were spatial differences in the impact of various factors on grain Total Factor Productivity.The degree of food dependence on foreign countries and the level of urbanization showed great differences in Asian and European countries.The degree of food dependence and urbanization could promote the improvement of the Total Factor Productivity of grain in Asian countries,but would inhibit the Total Factor Productivity of grain in European countries.Lastly,we proposed policy suggestions on the future of grain cooperation to China and countries along the "Belt and Road".