Study On Convergence And Influencing Factors Of Grain Total Factor Productivity

China is a large agricultural producer and food consumer,and the issue of food production and quality has always been a fundamental issue related to the people’s livelihood of the country.However,behind the years of bumper grain harvest in China is the excessive consumption of energy and resources,leading to the continuous deterioration of the agricultural ecological environment and threatening the sustainability of grain production.The effect of increasing grain production by relying on the massive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides and other elements is obviously crude,which will not only raise the economic cost of the elements and reduce the production efficiency of grain;it will also cause water pollution and deterioration of the agro-ecological environment,and eventually lead to the destruction of crop production conditions.Therefore,the model of promoting grain income through the expansion of input factors is unsustainable,and improving the green total factor productivity of grain is the important way.To change the grain production mode,we must change the traditional concept of sloppy growth,reduce redundant input of factors and lower pollution emissions,and make resources and environment together as important indicators to measure the efficiency of grain production.As an important module of agricultural production,realizing the green development of the main grain producing areas is the main link to ensure food security.Based on this,this study attempts to explore and answer the following questions: What is the production of grain and the input of major agricultural factors such as machinery,fertilizers and pesticides in China in recent years? What are the current situation and the characteristics of changes in the green total factor productivity of grain in China’s main production areas,taking into account both economic and ecological benefits? Are there any differences in green total factor productivity of grain between different basins and provinces? What factors affect the variation of green TFP in the main production areas and the three major river basins? With the help of Max DEA,Arc GIS,and Stata software,the study was carried out in the line of "index system construction → measurement and analysis → convergence test → influencing factors→conclusions and suggestions".The study shows that:(1)During the study period,the green total factor productivity of grain in the main production areas fluctuates,but shows a good growth trend in general;from the three major river basins,the ranking of green total factor productivity of grain is: Songhua River basin > Yellow River basin > Yangtze River basin,among which,only the green production of grain in Yangtze River basin has deteriorated.(2)From the convergence test,there is σ convergence between the main producing areas and the Yellow River basin and the Yangtze River basin,and the Songhua River basin does not show σ convergence;there is absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence between the main producing areas and the three major basins;the grain GTFP of each province generally shifts from the low efficiency interval to the high efficiency period,and the gap of grain GTFP between provinces gradually decreases.(3)The impact of urbanization on food GTFP in the main production areas is "Inverted U-shape",and financial support to agriculture,the degree of development of primary industry,and food production concentration have significant positive impacts on food GTFP in the main production areas.The effects of rural human capital,food crop disaster level and food production price index on food GTFP in the main production areas are all negative with small values.The sub-basins appear to differ in the role of the influencing factors.