| Sustainable agricultural development is not only the focus of our country,but also the premise and fundamental guarantee of sustainable human development.And it plays a key role in natural resource conservation,environmental protection and the promotion of rural revitalization.Scholars agree on the need to implement agricultural industrial agglomeration and promote industrial structure upgrading to boost agricultural development.However,the long-term high-input,high-consumption and high-pollution agricultural development model not only promotes the rapid growth of agricultural output value,but also put enormous pressure on resources and the environment,threatening the sustainability of agriculture.The contradiction between them is also coming to the fore.The destruction of arable land,water pollution,and environmental degradation caused by widespread industrialization and urbanization have compressed the space for sustainable agricultural development.While industrial agglomeration has improved efficiency,it has also brought about a further intensification of the regional separation of agricultural production and consumption.The scarcity of soil and water resources in the main agricultural production areas is becoming an obstacle to the sustainability of agricultural development.There may be a complex nonlinear relationship between industrial agglomeration and structural upgrading and sustainable agricultural development,but the specific relationship between them has not been verified.Clarifying the dynamic impact mechanism of industrial agglomeration and industrial structure upgrading on sustainable agricultural development,especially the possible inhibitory effect of excessive development,is conducive to accurately putting forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions from the perspective of industrial development,and provides a theoretical basis and decision reference for the government’s management of sustainable agricultural development.Using panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1997 to 2019,this study introduces 4indicators of cultivated land space,water space,environmental space and technology space and measures the agricultural sustainable development index(ASDI)in 31 provinces in China based on potential resources and environmental capacity,and further analyzes the driving factors that affects the level of sustainable agricultural development.The nonlinear influence mechanisms between agricultural industrial agglomeration,industrial structure upgrading and sustainable agricultural development are then examined by panel threshold models.In this way,we can clarify its dynamic impact mechanism and stage effect,deeply understand the laws and obstacles of sustainable agricultural development in China,and provide scientific basis for improving the level of sustainable agricultural development by adjusting industries.The results show that:(1)On the whole,the average level of agricultural industrial agglomeration from 1997 to 2019 showed a fluctuating trend,with a small fluctuation range;the average level of industrial structure upgrading showed obvious periodic characteristics,and it showed a steady upward period after 2014.Both present significant spatial differences,and the level of agricultural industrial agglomeration between adjacent provinces will have a positive impact on each other.(2)In terms of the temporal characteristics,taking 2002 and 2007 as the demarcation point,the national average ASDIpresents a trend of rising first,then falling,and finally rising.Significant spatial differences are found regarding the ASDI.The ASDI of some western provinces and southeastern coastal provinces dropped in 2019.(3)Constrained arable land space and environmental space are the main drivers of the decline in the ASDI.From the perspective of each province,most provinces are most constrained by arable land space.(4)The impact of agricultural industrial agglomeration on sustainable agricultural development is positive,but this positive effect diminishes when (?)(?)(?) per capita exceeds 7288.Additionally,the effect of industrial structure upgrading on sustainable agricultural development is nonlinear.With increasing economic levels,the impact of industrial structure upgrading on sustainable agricultural development changed from positive to negative when (?)(?)(?) per capita was above 12494.(5)China is currently in the promotion stage for agricultural industrial agglomeration,but for industrial structure upgrading,provinces have entered the restriction stage,which should be noted.These results may help China design relevant policies for sustainable agricultural development from an industrial development perspective and promote sustainable agricultural development. |
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