Research On Investment Value Evaluation Of Infrastructure Public Offering REITs

With the transformation of China’s economy from high-speed growth to high-quality development,the economic growth has slowed down.Under the background of many challenges faced by industrial transformation and consumption upgrading,improving investment efficiency,revitalizing the stock assets in the field of infrastructure and commercial real estate and promoting the formation of reinvestment capacity have become an important starting point for China’s macroeconomic reform and development.For a long time,China’s infrastructure construction market has developed vigorously,but the problems faced by infrastructure investment and financing for a long time,such as unreasonable capital structure,low participation of social capital and high default rate of local bonds,have not been solved for a long time.In order to enrich infrastructure financing channels and strengthen infrastructure construction,public REITs should emerge from time to time.Since 2020,the national development and Reform Commission and the CSRC have actively promoted the implementation of public offering REITs,and the first batch of 9 public offering REITs were successfully issued in June 2021,marking the official departure of China’s public offering REITs.With the continuous hot promotion of the pilot project of public offering REITs,how to reasonably evaluate the value of such multi-level and multi-channel exit investment and financing tools as REITs,and how to effectively protect the interests of investors,these problems need to be solved urgently.In view of the above problems,this paper combs the literature at home and abroad,analyzes the development status of domestic infrastructure REITs based on the development process of China’s infrastructure,and points out that the value evaluation of public offering REITs in China is still in its infancy,and the foreign experience can not be fully applicable because of its policy and regionality.Therefore,this paper selects Boshi Merchants Shekou Industrial Park in the first batch of public REITs with the Industrial Park as the main business direction as the goal,analyzes its organizational structure,transaction structure,project risk and value evaluation methods,and explores the irrationality of the value evaluation methods.Then choose the option valuation model that can best reflect investors’ contingent claims as the carrier,and embed three kinds of model methods: option adjusted spread model,net asset valuation model and secondary market price under Monte Carlo simulation to design a valuation model that can fully reflect risks and protect investors’ interests.Taking Boshi Merchants Shekou REITs as an example to verify the model,and analyze the behavior path of investors according to the results.Based on the case analysis and the results and analysis of the application of the optimization model,this paper summarizes and summarizes five conclusions: first,public REITs is a financing channel suitable for infrastructure projects with large volume,long capital return period and low underlying asset risk.Second,the traditional single valuation method can not fully summarize the value of public REITs.Third,there is a big difference between the cash flow value of Boshi Merchants Shekou Industrial Park and the value of underlying assets,which is mainly due to the "tax shield" cash flow generated by the overvalued value at the initial stage of the project and the undervalued value of underlying assets caused by the attribute of industrial land in the industrial park.Fourth,the option valuation method is applicable to the value evaluation of public REITs.Fifth,the option adjusted spread method is applicable to the cash flow value evaluation of public REITs.Finally,according to the analysis and conclusions of the full text,this paper provides reasonable suggestions to policy makers,REITs fund managers and investors.