Research On Early Warning Of Financial Crisis Of Real Estate Enterprises From The Perspective Of Life Cycl

Real estate industry has become an important part of our country’s economy,but because of the particularity of its own,real estate enterprises in reap high profits at the same time,inevitably accompanied by higher financial risk,when enterprises face a serious financial risk,management information are more likely to make earnings management to whitewash statements,thus affect the decisions of the stakeholders.In addition,according to existing studies,when enterprises are in different life cycle stages,their strategic decisions are different.Therefore,based on the enterprise life cycle theory,this paper constructed the traditional Logistic financial early warning model and the early warning model with the addition of earnings management variables,hoping to help real estate enterprises find potential financial crisis in advance and take timely measures to promote the healthy development of real estate enterprises.This paper first reviews the domestic and foreign research results on financial early warning and enterprise life cycle division,and then introduces the calculation method of financial risk and earnings management of real estate enterprises,as well as the life cycle division method of real estate listed enterprises in this paper,and expounds relevant theories.Then,the data of real estate listed companies from 2000 to 2020 are selected for empirical analysis,and the traditional Logistic financial warning models under different life cycles and the warning models with earnings management variables are respectively constructed.The final findings of the study are as follows:(1)The earnings management behavior of listed real estate enterprises with financial crisis is more radical than that of healthy enterprises,and in different life cycles,listed real estate enterprises are more inclined to carry out real earnings management than accrual earnings management.(2)Adding earnings management variables can improve the overall warning accuracy of Logistic financial warning model in different life cycles.(3)The financial warning model with earnings management variable can improve the warning accuracy of the enterprises with financial crisis more than the enterprises with financial health.On the basis of empirical analysis,this paper selected Thaihot Group Co.,Ltd as a case study.Firstly,the financial early warning model established in the empirical part is applied.The results show that the financial early warning model with earnings management variable is more accurate than the model without it.Then,the earnings management level of the company under different life cycle and its influence on the effect of early warning are analyzed.Then,the comparative analysis method is used to analyze the company’s financial status and warning effect in different life cycles.The results show that by the end of 2021,the company has been deeply affected by the financial crisis.Finally,in view of the problems existing in the company,this paper puts forward suggestions in five aspects: improving the financial early warning system,maintaining appropriate borrowing,expanding financing channels,enhancing sales ability and timely adjusting strategies,hoping that the company can get out of the financial crisis as soon as possible,and also hoping to provide reference for the healthy development of China’s real estate companies.