Study On Pre-warning Of Financial Risk And Countermeasures Based On The Life Cycle Of Enterprise

The life cycle is the lifeline of an enterprise. It is directly related to the survival and development of enterprise. If the enterprise tries to develop with the benign situation and prolong the enterprise's life, it must master the life cycle's development of law, forecast and guard the various risks in the different periods of life cycle. At present, the study of pre-warning of financial risks and countermeasure is still in the initial stage. We mainly draw ideas from abroad, and use the static indicators to forecast, yet we ignore the characteristics of enterprise's life cycle and their effects on the financial risks, which severely affected the accuracy of prediction. Based on this, the article will be down the track of the life cycle of enterprise to research the questions of financial risk.In this paper, starting from the basic theory, the article involved in the three theories—Enterprise life cycle theory, financial risk-related theory and gray system theory to do a brief introduction for the below question on the financial risk pre-warning in-depth study; Secondly, because of the gray of listed companies financial situation and the superiority of the pre-warning model, then will use gray catastrophe theory ways set up the model to predicting the financial risks; at select variable, the traditional financial indicators have been easy to gloss over by the management and can not objectively reflect the financial position, the cash flow indicators can be precisely to address these deficiencies, so the article set the sample variables as cash flow indicator; the paper from the life-cycle perspective to resolve the problem of financial risk, the gray model itself does not take the impact of different characteristics of life cycle to the financial risk, so added correction factor dyi to adjust the constructed model, that the gray pre-warning model can apply to enterprises at all stages of the life cycle; the stage long-term in life cycle of enterprises is very important, related to the survival of enterprises, therefore, the article collect Amoi Electronics Co, Ltd long-term's net cash flow to carry out empirical analysis, to verify the model of implementation. Because of the financial risks that possibly appear in various stages of the life cycle, the forth chapter proposes the available strategy for financial risk circumvention to prevent further deterioration of financial risks from two aspects of overall and various stages. Through study of this article, we will provide more scientific and reasonable settlement of ideas and methods for Chinese enterprises.