Research On The Impact Of Population Age Structure On My Country’s Economic Growth

Since the reform and opening up,my country’s fertility policy has been constantly adjusted.From the latest census results,we can know that my country’s current population age structure is consistent with the "shrinking type" of the three pyramid types.The birth rate has declined,the proportion of the working population has decreased,the aging phenomenon is serious,and the population age structure is in constant change.At the same time,the economic growth rate gradually slowed down and entered a period of high-quality development.Whether it is the age structure of the population or the level of economic growth,there are also large differences between different regions.Therefore,it is very necessary and meaningful to study the impact of my country’s population age structure on economic growth by region.Based on the data of population age structure and economic growth in 30 provinces,cities and regions(except Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan and Tibet)from 2010 to 2019,this paper takes the total dependency ratio as the core explanatory variable and the real per capita GDP as the explained variable.Firstly,the relationship between the two is fitting during the spatio-temporal analysis.It is concluded that there is a negative correlation between the total dependency ratio and the real per capita GDP.In other words,the increase of the total dependency ratio has a restraining effect on the growth of the real per capita GDP.After descriptive statistical analysis,Hausman test and LSDV test are carried out.Considering the differences between individuals,a fixed-effect panel regression model is established in different regions.The results show that: the sign of total dependency ratio of population in each region is negative sign,and all have passed the significance level test,indicating that this core explanatory variable is significant,has a negative impact on economic growth,in line with previous expectations.From the perspective of each region,although the total dependency ratio of population has a negative impact on economic growth,the degree of impact is different.The western region is affected the most,followed by the central region,and the eastern coastal region is relatively less affected.In addition,in order to ensure the validity of the model,a dynamic panel regression model was established by adding the lag order of dependent variables into the model,and the endogeneity test was carried out on the model.The test results showed that the model passed the endogeneity test.In order to increase the reliability of the model,the control variables were replaced,and the robustness test of the model was carried out.The test results showed that the significance and sign of the coefficient of the core explanatory variables did not change,and the model passed the robustness test.Finally,based on the empirical research results of the impact of population age structure on economic growth,the conclusions are summarized,and some suggestions are appropriately put forward from five aspects: fertility policy,labor force,elderly population,old-age security,and R&D investment.