Research On Risk Management Of Local Government Special Bonds

In recent years,our government has been committed to actively and steadily resolving the accumulated local government debt risk.Under the new governance concept of "opening the front door and blocking the back door",issuing local government bonds has become the only legal way to open the "front door".Local government bonds can be divided into general bonds and special bonds according to the purpose of issuing bonds and the source of repayment funds.The former is a bond issued by local governments to solve the shortage of temporary expenditure,and the repayment funds mainly come from the general public budget revenue;The latter is a bond issued to raise funds for the construction of public welfare projects with certain benefits.The repayment funds mainly come from the government funds or special income corresponding to the project.Since 2015,in order to cope with the severe situation at home and abroad,the issuance of special bonds by local governments has been accelerating.From 2015 to 2020,China issued a total of 14.15 trillion special bonds,playing an important role in stabilizing economic growth and counter cyclical regulation.In response to the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic,only 4 trillion and 140 billion of the special issue bonds were issued in 2020,providing strong financial support and protection for the medical and health sector to supplement the short board and promote the rapid economic and social health recovery.With the acceleration of the issuance of special bonds,the risk of special bonds is gradually emerging.Through the national practice overview and the case of Sichuan Province,this paper identifies the risks existing in the whole life cycle of special bonds,makes a qualitative analysis on the causes of risks,makes a quantitative analysis on the principal and interest repayment risk,government debt risk and credit risk through relevant indicators and KMV model,and finally puts forward to deepen the reform of fiscal and taxation system,improve the issuance mechanism of special bonds Strengthen the management of special bonds and establish a special bond risk early warning and resolution mechanism to ensure that the risk of special bonds can be effectively prevented and controlled.