Research On Default Risk Of Individual Credit Loan Guarantee Insurance Policyholders

At present,China’s personal credit loan guarantee insurance business has encountered certain bottlenecks and challenges in its development due to the continuous default problems.Therefore,it is extremely important to further discuss and thoroughly study how to prevent the credit risk and default risk of personal credit loan guarantee insurance,and propose practical solutions to the default risk problem.Based on the default risk theory of personal credit loan guarantee insurance and the analysis of the current situation of its development at home and abroad,this paper constructs an OLS regression and Logistic regression model using the latest practice data of A property and casualty insurance company,and makes a detailed analysis and discussion on how to further manage the default risk of personal loan guarantee insurance in China.The results show that the key to the success and failure of the EU and Japanese credit guarantee schemes lies in the difference in the strength of internal and external risk prevention and control.In addition,the development experience of international credit guarantee insurance provides important insights into the development of personal credit loan guarantee insurance in China,namely,the sustainable and healthy development of this business requires the joint coordination and efforts of the government,lending financial institutions and insurance companies.In particular,it is worth noting that the lessons learned from both the EU and Japanese credit guarantee schemes show that pre-policy identification of policyholders can significantly reduce their default risk and that insurance companies should increase the importance of pre-policy review.The results of the empirical study show that the basic personal,professional and credit characteristics of a credit guarantee insurance policyholder affect the probability of default,with indicators such as marital status,total indebtedness,creditworthiness and credit card limit having a significant impact on the default risk.Based on the above research results,this paper portrays the customer characteristics that are prone to default risk and proposes corresponding policy recommendations based on the above findings,including that the government should create a favorable investment environment for policyholders,insurance companies should increase pre-policy review and post-policy management of policyholders,pay attention to the loan and credit characteristics of policyholders,and establish a user credit data sharing mechanism with consumer finance partners.