Research On Fictitious-toward Economy And The Risk Spillover Effect Of The Financial Industry On The Real Economy

With China’s economic development into the new normal,in the economic development of outstanding achievements at the same time also face more potential risks,high debt in the social sector,shadow banking and other risks emerge in an endless stream,the financial industry because of its unique attributes and has a profound connection with other real economic industries,the development of shadow banking and the intensification of the "derealization to virtual" makes the connection between finance and the real economy more and more close,but also increases the risk linkage of the two,Therefore,the research on risks should not be limited to the financial system,it is important to prevent and control the spillover impact of systemic financial risks on the real economy under the background of China’s economy "derealization to virtuality",which is of great significance to the development of China’s economy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.On the basis of the systematic risk spillover measurement method and related theories,this paper discusses the theoretical mechanism of risk spillover of the financial industry on the real economy industry and the influence mechanism of the"derealization to virtual" of the real industry on the risk spillover effect,and on this basis,the SSE energy,materials,industry,optional consumption,major consumption,medicine and health,finance,information technology,telecommunications business and public utilities ten types of industry indexes are selected as research objects,based on the Co VaR model of quantile regression.The risk spillover effect of the financial industry on various sub-industries of the real economy is analyzed from the two perspectives of static and dynamic,and the panel data model is further constructed to study the impact of the degree of "derealization to virtuality" of the real industry on the risk spillover level of the financial industry itself.The results of the study show that:(1)The risk calculated by the CoVaR model is bigger than the VaR measurement value,and the Co VaR model is more accurately measure the size of the risk in different industries.(2)The financial industry generally has a significant systemic risk spillover effect on various sub-industries of the real economy,and the risk spillover effect is more intense when the financial industry faces extreme risks,of which energy,industry,and materials are industries that are greatly affected by the impact of the financial industry.(3)The results of the panel regression show that the deepening of the degree of "derealization to virtuality" in the real industry has significantly increased the level of risk spillover from the financial industry.According to the above conclusions,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions for risk prevention and supervision of the real economy from the regulatory level,the industry level and the macro level.