Research On The Systemic Risks And Spillover Effects Of China's Banking Industry Under The Background Of Economic Growth Downward

After the 2008 financial crisis,Government had taken a series of regulatory policy,the growth rate of GDP in 2010 to two digits,but then,economic growth is increasingly downward.Although the financial system risk has been given attention and the supervision system has been enhanced,the prevention measures have been put into effect,with the gradual deepening of financial reform,the prevention and control of risk will face more challenges.Once the systemic risk of financial institutions outbreak,which rely on their own infectivity,quicklyspread to the entire financial system,leading to the emergence of the financial crisis.And for a long time,bank has dominated China's financial system,therefore the financial systemic risk is highly concentrated in the banking industry,also banking in the financial system of our country is most vulnerable,banking's Spillover effect of systemic risk on securities,insurance,trust and other financial industry is particularly significant,so in order to maintain the sustainable development of economy and the stability of the financial system,under the background of economic growth downward,research on banking system risks and spillover effect is imperative.In our country,under the background of economic growth downward,from theoretical and empirical aspects of research on the Risk Spillover Effect and systemic risk of banking.Four level selection,13 indicators,using related data form 2005 to 2014,constructing the index system of risk to the banking system,setting index weight based on entropy method,using the membership function to quantify the banking systemic risk.Based on the Co VaR model,from the static and dynamic angle,quantify the banking's spillover risk on the securities,insurance,trust and other financial industry.Study found that,relative to China's rapid economic growth period,in the period of economic growth rate down,the banking system risk is lower,especially the macroeconomic level,banking;s Spillover effecton of Systemic Risk on the securities,insurance,trust and other financial industry is greatly weakened.The weight of the GDP growth rate in the banking system risk index system is 7.21%,it has a significant impact on the banking system risk.With the GDP growth rate down,the systemic risk of banking will gradually increase,while the trend of other indicators changing,banking industry and the entire financial system will face a huge challenge.Therefore,despite the current systemic risks and spillover effect of banking is not high,There are many risks and crisis,particularly paying attention to China's debt maturity structure,economic growth and operating conditions,inflation rate,real market and potential purchasing power and bank deposit ratio and so on.To strengthen market supervision,improving risk control mechanism,effectively inhibitting the enhancing of Spillover effect of systemic risk of banking to other financial industry.