| Since the reform of housing commercialization system in 1998,the real estate industry has developed rapidly,and the phenomenon of high house price income ratio appears in many places in China.In the process of urbanization,what impact will the increase of house price income ratio have on the urban-rural income gap.In order to analyze this problem,firstly,combined with the research conclusions of existing relevant literature and the economic theory of relevant works,this thesis infers the possible correlation between the three:(1)the development of urbanization will narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas through the role of population employment,industrial structure and infrastructure construction;(2)In the process of urbanization development,population and capital accumulation are promoted,thus promoting the growth of real estate demand.At the same time,the land supply cannot be effectively expanded due to demolition and construction costs and land finance.Therefore,the house price income ratio in many cities is constantly pushed higher.(3)the increase of house price income ratio will be through wealth effect,credit effect Inflation effect and crowding out effect expand the income gap between urban and rural areas;(4)The ratio of house price to income plays an indirect role in the impact of urbanization on the income gap between urban and rural areas,which is embodied in the masking effect.In order to test the above hypothesis,we select the panel data of 270 prefecture level cities in China from 2002 to 2018.According to the intermediary effect model test procedure,we use the stepwise regression method to study the impact of urbanization on the urban-rural income gap and the indirect effect of house price income ratio in this process.The conclusions are as follows:(1)from the perspective of total effect,the development of urbanization has narrowed the income gap between urban and rural areas;(2)Urbanization development has a positive impact on the urban-rural income gap by pushing up the house price income ratio.The positive indirect effect of the house price income ratio weakens the negative impact of the direct effect of urbanization development,which is embodied in the masking effect.This effect is still valid after testing with instrumental variables.(3)After the sample is divided into samples according to the level of urban development,it is found that there are differences in the effect of urbanization on the urban-rural income gap and the masking effect of house price income ratio.The effect is significant in eastern cities,not significant in central and western cities,and greater in large and medium-sized cities than in small cities.Therefore,based on the empirical research conclusions,this thesis puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions:(1)give full play to the role of urbanization in narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas.Consolidating the economic base,strengthening the construction of infrastructure network and steadily promoting the reform of registered residence system will help to promote the process of urbanization and narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas.(2)Clarify the role of the real estate industry in economic development.We should make it clear that the real estate industry is an industry serving urbanization and prevent funds from blindly pouring into the real estate industry.Therefore,the government adopts the following appropriate regulation policies of the real estate market to prevent the high ratio of house price to income.(3)Cities with different levels of economic development should adopt corresponding policies according to local conditions.For cities with a high level of economic development,we should focus on regulating the development of the real estate market.For cities with a low level of economic development,we should pay attention to maintaining the healthy development of the real estate market while focusing on developing the urban economy and promoting the development of urbanization. |
