The Study On The Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate Flutuations On The Added Value Of China’s Agricultural Exports

After China joined the WTO in 2001,the trade cooperation between China and the world in agricultural products has been deepened,and the export volume of agricultural products has continued to grow.Since 2005,the RMB foreign exchange settlement mechanism has been implemented,and China has gradually formed a managed floating exchange rate system based on the supply and demand relationship in the international market and traded in accordance with a basket of currencies.This has a profound impact on China’s agricultural exports.With the formation of global value chains and the continuous deepening of intermediate product trade,the relationship between the added value of China’s agricultural exports and the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has become increasingly close,and the study of the relationship between the two has important practical significance.With the help of exchange rate data and trade data,this paper firstly summarizes the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and the export of Chinese agricultural products;secondly,the GARCH model is used to calculate the fluctuation value of RMB exchange rate from 2000 to 2014,and the total export decomposition method is used to analyze the agricultural products in China from 2000 to 2014.Export value-added situation,as the main explained variable into the panel regression model;Finally,through empirical analysis,the study concludes the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the value-added of China’s agricultural exports.The study found that:(1)The depreciation of the RMB can significantly increase the added value of China’s agricultural exports.At the same time,in different industries,exporting countries and different periods,the devaluation of the people will significantly increase the added value of China’s agricultural exports.(2)The reduction in the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate will significantly increase the added value of China’s agricultural exports.Among them,the crop industry and developing countries with lower economic levels are more affected by the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate.In 2005,China carried out the exchange rate reform.In a small year,the added value of China’s agricultural exports increased significantly,and vice versa.(3)The impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the added value of agricultural exports is transmitted through two transmission mechanisms:relative export prices and total factor productivity.In view of the above conclusions,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions for stabilizing the RMB exchange rate and increasing the added value of China’s agricultural exports.