| Exchange rate changes have always been a hot issue of the economy.It is inextricably linked with economic and trade issues.As China's unique socialist country,the study of the RMB exchange rate issue is an important part of China's external exploration and independent innovation.There are many studies on exchange rate changes.Previous studies of scholars have mostly focused on the relationship between exchange rates and various economic variables,and on the basis of the changes and relations of exchange rate of Renminbi,it is on this basis that they specifically explored the reform of China's exchange rate system and other related contents.Scholars often regard the exchange rate as an exogenous variable or an explanatory variable,and pay less attention to its endogenousness and its transmission mechanism.From the empirical point of view,this article uses the exchange rate as an intermediate conduction variable to study the impact of different external shocks,and then the impact on China's import and export structure of goods trade.This paper based on the previous exchange rate theory:the theory of purchasing power parity,interest rate parity theory,the influence of Dombush Barraza Samuelson,the exchange rate overshooting effect and exchange rate factors of the literature study,combined with the status quo at home and abroad on exchange rate factors,make the identification and decomposition of that different sources of exchange rate impact.Based on 2008-2017 year data,constructed the SVAR model and distribution lag model.The empirical results show that:1.the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate is mainly caused by the specific demand of money and the supply of money,and the influence of economic demand is less.2.The positive impact speculative demand will exacerbate China's import structure.3.money supply is negatively correlated with the ratio of imports and exports of primary products,which is positively correlated with the ratio of labor intensive exports to capital intensive products exports.4.the positive impact of economic demand increases the proportion of imports and exports of primary products,and reduces the ratio of labor intensive products exports to capital intensive products exports.Finally,we put forward the following suggestions for different sources of exchange rate impact factors,so as to better cope with China's current economic situation and adjust China's import and export structure.1.The aspect of the money supply.The money supply should not only follow the reasonable increase of the law,but also clarify the power and responsibility of the various departments of the monetary management system.The legal identification and supervision of electronic money and other kinds of money should be put on the agenda as soon as possible,and the audit of the corresponding qualifications of the currency of non bank financial institutions should be put on the agenda as soon as possible.2.The aspect of economic demand,it is not only required for the industry to improve its production technology,but also to establish a good reflux mechanism for the processing of primary products.To improve the efficiency of the development of new energy and the reserve of commodities,so as to reduce China's dependence on export country as much as possible and avoid the adverse effects of the exchange rate on it.3.The aspect of money demand.With the independent adjustment of domestic interest rates,China should have a mount of foreign exchange reserves and risk management techniques to avoid violent changes in exchange rates caused by speculation.Supervision of the domestic financial market and the perfection of the market-oriented reform needs steadily progress,The government should conduct industry norms and guidance on China's import and export enterprises,and establish adequate channels for financial support... |
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