Study On FTA Construction In China And GCC Countries

Since the establishment of the GCC in 1981,China has been actively trading with the GCC countries.The GCC countries are extremely rich in oil resources,and the member countries are all oil exporters.China imports oil all year round and is a veritable oil importing power.China’s imports of oil resources from GCC countries total US$89,089 million in 2019,accounting for 80.2% of the total imports,which shows that China’s dependence on the oil of the GCC countries is extremely high.2022 International The turbulent political situation has triggered a global supply crisis,resulting in high global crude oil prices,and gasoline prices in China are also deeply affected.Therefore,the establishment of a free trade zone between China and the GCC is of great significance to the long-term development of China’s economy.Under this background,a series of studies on the construction of an FTA between China and the GCC countries.Firstly,this paper compares China’s and the GCC’s participation in the FTA process through and the main contents of FTA negotiations between China and GCC in the context of the construction of FTA between China and GCC countries.In order to study the current development of trade between China and the GCC,this paper divides the development trend of trade between the two sides into three stages,the first stage: the stable rising stage from 2000 to 2007;the second stage: the high-speed development stage from 2008 to 2014;and the third stage: the slow export stage from2015 to 2019.Combined with the development of trade between China and GCC countries,this paper summarizes the characteristics of bilateral commodity import and export trade: China’s trade with the GCC countries has a high country concentration,mainly with Saudi Arabia and UAE,and the bilateral trade volume of China to Saudi Arabia and UAE in 2019 accounted for 43.61% and 27.08% of the total trade volume between China and GCC countries respectively;moreover,the degree of import and export of trade products is concentrated,and China’s exports to the GCC are mainly electrical products,machine parts and other products,while China’s imports of GCC products are mainly energy products such as fossil fuels;energy cooperation dominates China’s trade with the GCC,with China’s imports of the original GCC products accounting for more than 60% of the total imports from 2000 to 2019.Second,this paper adopts trade competitive advantage index(TC)and national comparative advantage index(CAC),and trade complementation index(TCI)to analyze the competitiveness and complementation of China’s trade in goods with the GCC during 2015-2019,the results show that China has a competitive advantage over Bahrain and the UAE at national level,whose TC indexes are 0.77 and 0.38,respectively,and a competitive disadvantage over The remaining four countries have a competitive disadvantage,and their TC indices are all negative.The TCI index shows that China’s trade with the GCC countries is highly complementary,with different products with different trade advantages.The TCI index shows that the trade between China and the GCC countries is highly complementary,and the two sides have different products with trade advantages,which is promote the sustainable development of bilateral trade.Again,in order to conduct a predictive analysis of the trade effects of the FTA between China and the GCC countries,this paper uses a combination of a gravity model and panel data to conduct the study on China’s trade with the GCC to conduct an empirical analysis to study the effects of fictitious variables of China’s gross product,partner countries’ gross product,partner countries’ population,distance between the two capitals and whether or not a free trade agreement is signed with China on the trade import and export volume between the two sides,and the results are used to assess trade potential between China and GCC countries,and then the A more comprehensive analysis of the trade in goods shows that the gross product and demographic factors play a facilitating role in China’s import and export trade with the GCC and the direct distance from the capital plays a hindering role,facts show that the signing of the FTA plays an important role in the trade between the two countries,concluding that more efforts should be made to promote the early signing of an FTA between China and the GCC.The potential coefficient of China’s export trade with the UAE is 0.40 and the potential coefficient of import trade with Bahrain is 0.41,both of which have great room for development.Finally,according to the analysis results,this paper analyzes the trade situation between China and GCC and its impact on trade,we have put forward measures to promote the establishment of a free trade zone between China and GCC countries,firstly,we should deepen and promote cooperation in the energy sector to consolidate China’s energy supply chain;secondly,we should optimize the industrial structure to develop bilateral trade,increase investment in science and technology and create "high-quality" import and export trade;next,strengthen the internationalization of RMB,promote financial cooperation and actively grasp new energy;finally,we should build a security framework mechanism to safeguard common interests and strengthen cooperation in non-traditional areas.