| Since the end of 2019,most of the targets set for "deleveraging,overcapacity reduction and risk prevention" have been completed,and the increase rate of government and corporate leverage has been effectively alleviated.However,the increase rate of household leverage is still relatively fast.A large number of studies have found that the rapid rise of household leverage ratio is easy to cause the instability of the financial system,and unreasonable blind leverage control will also bring great negative impact on the economy.So,the research on that dynamic relationship between resident leverage and financial stability is actual meaning.This paper analyzes the current state of the debt ratio of Chinese residents over the past 10 years through domestic and international comparisons based on the calculation of the debt ratio of existing residents.Secondly,in the light of financial stability’meaning,the finance stability index(FSCI)is constructed,which contains three dimensions of financial development level,financial resilience and financial resilience.The FSCI index is obtained by principal component analysis after weighting,so as to evaluate the change process of our country’s finance stability over the last decade.And next positive analysis is two sections.The first part conducts trend analysis on the relationship between household leverage and financial stability,selects quarterly data from 2011 to 2020,constructs the TVP-VAR model with household leverage and financial stability as the main variables and macro-economy as the control variables,and explores the dynamic influence relationship between the two.The second part is the heterogeneity for China’s 31 provinces(municipalities)analysis,using the panel data from 2015 to 2020,the first whole regression to test the residents leverage effect on financial stability,and specific analysis residents leverage to financial stability in different influence factors on the impact of discrepancy,in the light of the division of our country,the differential influence of household leverage level on financial stability is analyzed in China’s four regions one by one.The results show that :(1)household leverage has a positive effect on financial stability in the short term,But it has a bad effect over a long time,and the affect on finance stability will have a adverse impact on family leverage and macro-economy;(2)When the economy is stable and improving,household leverage has a positive impact on financial stability.In the economic downturn or recession,household leverage has a significant negative impact on financial stability;(3)On the whole,household leverage has a positive impact on financial stability by promoting macroeconomic development and improving financial defense level,but it has a negative effect on financial stability by squeezing social consumption;(4)From the perspective of different regions,the leverage ratio of residents in the eastern,western and northeastern all has a very obvious positive influence on financial stability,But in the middle of our country,this kind of influence is not evident.At last,with the study conclusions,Based on reality to reasonably adjust the level of household leverage to maintain financial stability to provide reference policy suggestions. |
