The Evaluation System Of Banks Default Risk Of Private Enterprises

The private economy is an important part of the national economy.As a driving force in promoting the rapid and sustainable development of China’s economy,private enterprises are also in development dilemma of financing difficulty.The primary reason is that,under China’s current policy system and market environment,private enterprises have access to relatively few resources and policy support in comparison to other enterprises,whose overall competitiveness is low,and they face increased pressure to operate sustainably and develop sustainably,as well as increased default risk.Therefore,accurately assessing the credit risk of private enterprises,improving the quality of the credit assets of private enterprises in commercial banks,and raising the enthusiasm of bank personnel to manage private enterprise loans are the basis of managing current commercial banks’ credit risk and solving the financing difficulties.Apart from focusing on the theoretical discussion of risk assessment indicators and methods throughout the research process and achievements of domestic and foreign experts and scholars on credit risk assessment methods,empirical analysis is primarily conducted by using publicly available and standardized data of listed companies or bond issuing enterprises,or divided by enterprise scale,small and medium-sized enterprises as a group,divided by enterprise economic components.As a result,it is valuable and important to augment and develop this area of research.The private economy develops actively in Shandong Province.However,in recent years,due to various factors,a large number of private enterprises have successively suffered debt crises,and bank loans have defaulted on a large amount,which have brought heavy losses and discouragement to banks to support private enterprises.The practice indicates that diversified investment,excessive financing and guarantee circle are main reasons of the credit default of private enterprises.According to the practical situation and risk characteristics of private enterprises in Shandong Province,this thesis selects 10 non-financial indicators from the points of industry characteristics,enterprise qualifications,management conditions,bank-enterprise cooperation,and external guarantee risks,and 43 financial indicators from 5 perspectives of credit capability,profitability,profit quality,operational ability and development ability.This thesis standardizes the original data based on the enterprise information and credit data of 158 private enterprises in 2017-2018 obtained from a commercial bank in Shandong Province,sifts samples that could significantly distinguish default and non-default through the univariate and multivariate analysis to test 53 indicators.Besides,after performing a collinearity diagnosis to the sifted samples,it constructs and tests the risk assessment model through logistic regression.The empirical results prove that for the financial factors that affect credit risk,the net profit growth rate is negatively correlated with the default rate,and the debt service guarantee ratio is positively correlated with the default rate.For non-financial factors,the founding time of the company and experience of management layer have a negative correlation with the default rate,and the number of financial institutions cooperation and external guarantee risk has a positive correlation with the default rate.In addition,this thesis also selects the data of 80 private enterprises of a commercial bank in Shandong Province in 2019 for validity test.The test results show that the logistic model constructed is good enough to apply to the credit risk assessment of private enterprises in Shandong Province.By summarizing and analyzing the regression results,this thesis comes up with corresponding policy suggestions for the development of credit business and risk prevention and control of private enterprises in Shandong Province.