Research On Credit Risk Assessment Of Commercial Banks

As an institution of risk management,commercial Banks' non-performing assets have increased year by year,attracted more and more theoretical and practical attention.The JP Morgan bank have studied its loan losses data in history,and concluded that the famous "3 times rule".The rule said that of all bank loan losses,there are 3/4 can effectively avoid before loan in a certain period of.After the damage has occurred,the effect of take measures to remedy is smaller,less than the loss of a quarter.In other words,pre-loan control is critical,and the most direct and effective way to control pre-loan is to assess risk.Credit risk is the main risk to the bank for a long time,but also lead to the direct cause of bad loans,therefore,to evaluate the credit risk should become the key of the bank's risk management.This paper studies the credit risk assessment of commercial banks;comb the domestic and foreign relevant literature from the credit risk assessment method and the credit risk factor.First of all,defined the concept of bank credit risk and theory of information asymmetry and comprehensive risk management,and introduces the present mainstream credit risk assessment method;Secondly,taking the agricultural bank of Lai Wu branch as an example,analyzed the present situation of credit risk assessment and summarized the existing problems.On the basis of this,the factors that influence the occurrence of credit risk are analyzed from three aspects of macro,industry and enterprise.Then,based on certain principles of the comprehensive,scientific nature and operability,representative and dynamic,this article constructed including industry climate index,enterprise credit rating,enterprise scale,current ratio,asset-liability ratio,net profit margin of main business flow,accounts receivable,asset turnover,net profit growth rate of credit risk assessment index system.Finally,from the agricultural bank of Lai Wu branch,the data of 896 credit lines from 2007 to 2016 were obtained,and the credit risk assessment model of commercial Banks was constructed using Logistic regression model.Through the research,it is beneficial for the bank to judge the solvency and default size of the loan company,and reduce the occurrence of credit risk as much as possible.For borrowing enterprises,better regulate their own development and strengthen self-discipline.The most important thing is to be able to provide reference and reference to other financial institutions credit risk assessment.