Forecast Analysis Of China’s Cross-border Meat Trade Under The Background Of The COVID-19 Epidemic

As countries around the world have taken epidemic prevention measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 and restrict the movement of people and factors of production,international trade in agricultural products,including meat,continues to be severely affected.Therefore,while other external conditions remain basically unchanged,the epidemic and its prevention and control measures have become the main factor restricting the development of trade.Quantitative research on the impact of COVID-19 on China’s meat trade at the present stage and prediction of future trends based on the actual trade situation is of great significance for responding to changes in the epidemic,minimizing the impact of the epidemic,avoiding risks in international trade and reducing losses.In this paper,the import volume,export volume,import volume,import unit value and export unit value of China’s meat trade from 2015 to 2021 are collected from the database of the General Administration of Customs of China.Then,using the time series theory,the regression moving average model is constructed for the data of six indicators of meat trade from 2015 to 2021,and the indicator data of 2022 is predicted and compared with the data of the same period of 2021.The change rate matrix of month and indicator 12×6 is set as the original matrix X＿IJ.Then,the entropy weight method is used to calculate the overall influence coefficient S＿i of the change rate of each meat trade index,among which the three indexes of export volume,import volume and import unit price are more obvious,and their influence coefficient is 0.46,-0.38and-0.53 respectively,and other indexes are relatively small.Finally,the weighted average of the change rate shows that the comprehensive impact index of COVID-19 on China’s meat trade is-0.45.These indicators indicate that under the background of COVID-19,the fluctuation trend of China’s meat trade in 2022 compared with that in2021 is increasing,while the fluctuation trend of import volume and import unit price is decreasing,and the overall trade situation of meat and miscellaneous chop projects is deteriorating.The data also verified the prediction of the article in advance.When other trade terms remain unchanged,meat trade is still negatively affected by COVID-19 and its prevention and control measures.Based on the conclusion of the paper,the impact of COVID-19 on China’s meat trade will continue in 2022.Measures should be taken in the following four aspects to deal with the impact of COVID-19,including reducing dependence on a single trading object,promoting trade form innovation,accelerating virus-related research,and strengthening international exchanges and cooperation.