Research Of The Time Series Analysis Method And Its Applization In Forecasting The GDP Of Shannxi Province

In the process of developing national economy, Gross Domestic Product is inevitably an important criterion for judging the overall national strength.Gross Domestic Product is commonly regarded as the best criterion for evaluating the national economy, refers to the ultimate products in the economy of a nation or a region in certain amount of time(a quarter or a year). GDP can not only weigh the national products and income size as a whole, but also weigh the economic fluctuation and the periodic status of the economy in general.Thus the data of GDP has become the most concerned economic statistics in macro economy and is regarded as an important index for assessing the national economic development and for judging the operating status of macro economy.Besides, it is also the vital basis for government to set down economic developmental strategies and economic policies.Therefore it has great theoretical and realistic significance to analyze and forecast this criterion accurately.Time series is a series of number which got by observing the same phenomenon in different period of time. Time Series Analysis is the important approach to solve and analyze the dynamic data. which is basic on the probability statistics to analyze random data series (or called dynamic data series), find the mathematic model, and futher apply to forecast, adaptive control and so on,and it is actual value to applled research study. The predicting way of time series is achieved by exploring the laws that phenomenal change with time, in the historical statistics of time series. Time series extend the laws to the future so as to predict the future of a phenomenon. The traditional method of time series analysis applied in economy is mainly the fixed time series analysis method, such as Exponential Smoothing method,Moving Average method,Decomposition of the time series and so on. With the development of society, many uncertain elements impose influences on economy, which should be attached importance to people.Box and Jenkins proposed a method of time series based on random theory in 1970 which not only takes the theory of time series analysis to a new level but also promotes the preciseness of prediction(Liu Wei 2008). The basic analytical models of time series are AR Model, MA Model, ARMA Model and ARIMA Model. Based on the theory of time series, this thesis sets up a time series model, evaluates the model and finally finds a right model by exploring the GDP of Shannxi province from1952 to 2007.SPSS software and Excel are applied in this thesis. It finds the best of the model to make a prediction on the gross product of Shannxi province in the next six years. And this thesis mainly do the following three aspects studies. Firstly, illustrate the reason of analysis GDP of Shannxi Province, purpose and signification of time series analysis,the research actuality of time series analysis. Secondly, study and discuss the theory and method of modeling the time series. Thirdly, establish the time series model of the national GDP, the first, second and third industry. and finally establish the time series model of Shannxi GDP, the first, second and third industry of Shannxi Province, which is deeply discussed and studied. and than forecast the GDP of Shannxi Province in the coming six years.