| Novel coronavirus pneumonia(COVID-19)epidemic spread throughout China in January 2020.From January 23,2:00 a.m,Wuhan City,Hubei Province issued a city closure notice,and the city officially closed at 10 a.m.Since then,the whole nation has fought the battle against the epidemic.In order to avoid large-scale population migration and aggregation,China has taken various preventions and control measures,such as closing down the city,stopping production,isolating at home and extending the Spring Festival holiday.With the continuous development of the epidemic,it has brought great impact on Chinese social and economic operation in the short term.Affected by the novel coronavirus pneumonia(COIVD-19)epidemic,the actual GDP growth rate in the 1st quarter of 2020 dropped by 6.8%.Among which,the growth rate of the primary industry decreased by 3.2%,that of the secondary industry decreased by 9.6%,and that of the tertiary industry decreased by 5.2%.Although Chinese economy recovered strongly in the second quarter,Chinese real GDP growth rate fell by 1.6% in the first half of the year on the whole.In which,the first industry increased by 0.9%,the second industry decreased by 1.9%,and the tertiary industry decreased by1.6%.Through the above macro data,we can find that the primary industry was the least affected by the epidemic,the tertiary industry was the second,and the second industry was the largest.Then,has the novel coronavirus pneumonia(COVID-19)epidemic affected the structural differentiation of the three industries in the A share market which is as an economic barometer?Firstly,this paper takes Wuhan City closure event on January 23,2020 as the dividing point.We observed the average increase of stock index of various industries in Chinese A-share market before and after the outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia(COVID-19).Then,two hypotheses of Chinese stock market were put forward.First,the novel coronavirus pneumonia(COIVD-19)epidemic had significant structural differentiation on the yield of stock index of three industries in China,and the differentiation of the industry in the stock market was basically consistent with the actual performance of the three industries.That is: the primary industry(Agriculture)was affected by the epidemic least and the recovery time was very short;the second industry was most affected by the epidemic,and the recovery time was the longest;the performance of most industries in the tertiary industry was similar to that of the secondary industry.On the whole,the stock index return of the tertiary industry was better than that of the secondary industry,but slightly worse than that of the primary industry,and the overall recovery time of the tertiary industry was also in the middle.Second,the "novel coronavirus pneumonia(COVID-19)" epidemic had a significant effect on the fluctuation of stock price index in A share market.Among which,the fluctuation range of the primary industry after the outbreak of the epidemic was less than that before the outbreak of the epidemic,and it was only exacerbated at the outbreak stage,and it was not obvious in other periods compared with that before the epidemic;the volatility of the stock market return of the secondary industry was significantly increased after February 3,2020,for example,the fluctuation of the manufacturing industry was significantly increased,especially in March 2020,and the mining industry,power industry and construction industry were the same.The volatility of the stock return of the tertiary industry(such as transportation and storage,accommodation and catering)also increased significantly after the epidemic.However,the financial industry,real estate,health,culture and sports industry and other industries were not significantly different from those before the outbreak of the epidemic except for the obvious aggravation at the outbreak stage.Secondly,this paper uses the intervention model to test the characteristics of structural differentiation of the three industries.By estimating the regression equation,we found the coefficients of the variables of two waves of novel coronavirus pneumonia(COVID-19)epidemic were significantly negative.(The first wave was the domestic epidemic on January 23,2020;the second wave was the global epidemic from the end of February to March).It shows that the "new coronavirus pneumonia(COVID-19)" epidemic has indeed had a negative impact on the stock market,and the long-term impact of the epidemic on the tertiary industry was lower than that on the secondary industry,and the impact on the primary industry(Agriculture)was the lowest.That is in line with the first hypothesis.Finally,we use the GARCH model to test whether the "novel coronavirus pneumonia(COVID-19)" epidemic significantly exacerbated the fluctuation of stock market(variance)in various industries.Overall,the "novel coronavirus pneumonia(COVID-19)" epidemic has a significant impact on the stock market volatility.Among which,the impact of the epidemic on the variance of the first industry stock index returns was positive,but not noticeable;the second industries’(such as the mining industry,manufacturing industry,the power industry and the construction industry)coefficient are all positively positive;the third industry has 3 industries with a significant positive coefficient,including transportation,accommodation and catering and public implementation management.The coefficient of other industries including finance,real estate,culture and sports,health and other industries were not significant.This result is basically consistent with the second hypothesis.Novel coronavirus pneumonia(COVID-19)epidemic has great impact on Chinese macro-economy,and the survival of enterprises is rather difficult.The results of this paper are: under the condition of a significant decline in yields,the government should implement more relaxed monetary policies and positive fiscal policies to solve the problems and prevent systemic risks brought by the breakup of enterprises’ capital chain.In addition,novel coronavirus pneumonia(COVID-19)epidemic has increased the stock market volatility,which has actually increased economic uncertainty and increased investment wait-and-see sentiment.Under this background,the consumption voucher policy should be launched in a wide range of areas.The government should creat demand for enterprises in the short term,provid subsidies for low-income groups,and reduce the negative impact of economic uncertainty. |
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