Analysis Of The Spillover Effect Of The Reform Of Mortgage Rate On Chinese Real Estate Economy Undulation

Since the commercialization and monetization of China’s real estate market in1998,the real estate industry has not only affected people’s livelihood and wealth distribution,but also played a powerful role in promoting the development of upstream and downstream industries.With the development of social economy,the current real estate economy has become a major pillar of the social economic structure,and it plays a vital role in promoting the stability of the national economy and promoting the sustainable development of the social economy.During this period,the People’s Bank of China has repeatedly used monetary policy to stabilize housing prices,and the government has also introduced a series of purchase restrictions and adjustment of down payment ratio policies to ensure the healthy development of the real estate market.As the most direct transmission tool of monetary policy,interest rates can effectively regulate the supply and demand of funds in the real estate market,thereby realizing the regulation of the real estate economy to a certain extent.By studying the transmission mechanism of real estate economic fluctuations caused by interest rates,it is helpful for local governments to "prescribe the right medicine" to introduce regulatory policies,"adapt to local conditions" to formulate real estate economic development strategies,and ultimately maintain the healthy and stable development of my country’s real estate economy.Based on a large number of relevant documents at home and abroad,combined with the actual economic environment of real estate,this article first theoretically analyzes the background of interest rate policies regulating real estate economic fluctuations,expounds the spillover effect transmission mechanism of interest rate policies on real estate economy undulation,and constructs an SVAR model for empirical analysis from the perspective of transmission channels The effect of mortgage interest rate reform on the real estate economy.The empirical results show that the interest rate policy achieves the purpose of regulating the real estate economy by influencing the relevant variables of the real estate market.In the short term,real estate supply,financial support,and real estate investment have a greater spillover contribution to real estate economy undulation.In the long run,financial support,real estate supply and real estate demand have the largest spillover contribution to real estate economy undulation,followed by the spillover contribution of real estate demand to real estate economy undulation,and the contribution of real estate prices to real estate economy undulation is the smallest relative to other variables.Finally,based on the empirical results,policy recommendations were made from five aspects: continuing to promote the reform of interest rate liberalization,establishing a two-way housing price control mechanism,strengthening real estate investment response strategies,rationalizing and improving the level of real estate supply,and strengthening market supervision.