China's Real Estate Fluctuations In The Economy And Financial Risk Prevention

The real estate industry is one of important pillar industries of our national economy. In 2003, our country GDP rate of increment is 9.3%, but the technical progress factor of the property development & investment has achieved 4.0%.The real estate industry also is a fund intensity industry, is close with the financial system. Statistics indicated that, to 2004, the proportion using the bank loan in our country property development has achieved above 55%. Individual housing loan grows year by year, the increasing volume has amounted to 403.7 billion Yuan in 2004. The real estate and the macroscopic economy are same,not the steady development, have the undulation. The real estate economy undulation attacks the financial system inevitably, produce the huge financial risk. If controlled improperly, also is easy to breed the financial crisis. In 1993, Hainan real estate bubbles were disillusioned, the credit fund precipitation amounted to more than 80 billion Yuan, caused Hainan Development Bank closed, and brought disaster to the financial institutions of national other provinces and cities. In 1994, Beihai real estate bubbles were disillusioned; the credit fund precipitation amounted to 16 billion Yuan.The main contents of the paper as follows:Chapter 1: Undulatory theory of real estate economy. This chapter carries on the analysis to the connotation, classification, formation mechanism of undulation, effect of undulation, influencing factors and conduction way of real estate economy undulation and so on. Looked for a long time, the real estate economy development presents the upward growth tendency. But real estate economy then revolves about the long-term growth tendency to fluctuate and vibrate. The real estate economy undulation may divide into the real estate economical cycle and exceptional undulation. The two main differences lies in: Exceptional undulation produces in the non-rational congenial behavior, the cyclical...