Research On Corporate Credit Risk Contagion Based On Infectious Disease Model

It has been more than 10 years since the establishment of China’s credit market,which has provided sufficient liquidity for enterprises and accelerated financing among enterprises.By the end of 2019,the balance of China’s credit bond market was 97.10 trillion yuan,up 13.2% year on year,and it has become the second largest bond market in the world.However credit market scale growth rapidly in our country,the ability of the risk prevention and control can’t keep up with the pace of the market scale growth,since 2014,"the sun chao" JGBS in substantive default pulled open the prelude to a default credit market in China,since defaults increase year by year,in 2015,tianwei MTN2 "11" event of default become the first domestic bond defaults in state-owned enterprises,broke the bond just against the belief in state-owned enterprises,in 2018 "corps debt defaults," marked with the city government’s recessive guarantee for debt there are risks,credit risk has become a must pay attention to the spread of the problem.The study of risk cases shows that default risks are contagious rather than isolated,and their risk sources are complex,usually with multi-path contagion effects.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study risk contagion and multi-path risk transmission.This paper through the case of default and the related theory,analyzed the credit risk of possible transmission path and its transmission mechanism,after the induction mechanism of risk transmission path,found that all paths can be divided into:(1)there is a direct management of finance,associated risk of direct infection,(2)because of the market,the irrational trading behavior such as digestion of risk information indirectly risk caused by the presence of infection.In this paper,based on the two paths of direct risk contagion and indirect risk contagion,an infectious disease model with mixed infectious terms is established,five equilibria of the model are given,the local stability and global stability of four equilibrium points are proved,and the corresponding economic meaning of each equilibrium point is given.Through the numerical simulation of the model,the author changes the parameters,and gives the corresponding policy Suggestions.In this paper,from the perspective of the mechanism path of risk propagation,the theoretical model of mixed risk contagion is established,and the existence of the equilibrium point is proved,which provides a certain theoretical basis for the corresponding risk management.