Analysis On The Stability And Risk Contagion Process Of The Interbank Market In China

Since 2018,unstable factors in the macroeconomic operation have suddenly increased,and Sino-US economic and trade frictions have brought new downward pressure on economic operations.In 2020,the occurrence of the "black swan" incident of the new type of pneumonia epidemic has become the main factor that disturbs the stock market’s plunge.The European and American markets have suffered continuous meltdowns and collapses under the influence of the epidemic.The Chinese economy is at a critical moment of transformation,and some "gray rhino" incidents may still occur.The financial market is highly sensitive to external shocks.As the core of the financial market,the banking industry should pay more attention to the prevention and control of financial risks.Therefore,in-depth research on the stability of the interbank lending market and the risk contagion process has very important practical significance for preventing the occurrence of systemic risks in the banking industry.Based on the interbank lending data of 40 banks from 2016 to 2018,the article uses the maximum information entropy method and the RAS optimization algorithm to construct an interbank lending matrix.After determining the threshold based on the constructed lending matrix,UCINET software was used to simulate the complex network model of the interbank lending market in China,and the stability and risk contagion effects of the market were analyzed in detail.The first chapter of the article introduces the research background and significance of the interbank lending market,as well as the research methods and research framework used in the article,and lists the innovations and deficiencies of this article.The second chapter describes the related theories of complex network and inter-bank lending market risk contagion and sharing.Chapter three describes the development of China’s banking industry and inter-bank market through three aspects:China’s economic development,domestic banking market structure and China’s interbank lending market.The fourth chapter first gives the steps and methods of constructing the interbank interbank market network model,then introduces the theoretical basis of the threshold method to generate the interbank interbank borrowing complex network model,constructs the complex network model of the interbank borrowing market in China,and finally adopts The stability of the complex network model of the interbank interbank market is analyzed by comparing the changes of the complex network model structure under random attack and deliberate attack.It is concluded that the deliberate attack is more damaging to the network and the network model is more vulnerable.Chapter V makes basic assumptions about the risk contagion of the interbank lending market,and also introduces the risk contagion conditions and the process of risk contagion,and simulates the risk contagion triggered by a single risk contagion source and multiple risk contagionsources respectively Situation and analyze risk contagion from multiple dimensions.The empirical analysis results show that:(1)The risk contagion process has a certain dependence on the default loss rate;(2)In recent years,each bank ’s ability to resist risks has increased;(3)The scale of banks ’interbank and the bank ’s risk contagion ability is positively related;(4)Compared with joint-stock commercial banks,large commercial banks have hit the entire banking system harder when operating crises.The sixth chapter is based on the conclusions drawn in this article,from the perspective of stability and risk contagion to put forward suggestions to prevent and resolve banking risks,in order to transform and upgrade China’s banking industry can be healthy and sustainable operations.